#美联储降息预测

Expectations of interest rate cuts are soaring, and I am choosing a smarter trading approach instead.

The market currently assigns a very high probability to rate cuts, which means that “positive news has already been partially priced in.” In other words, the true market movement may not occur at the moment of the rate cut announcement but rather in the subsequent trend confirmation.
If the rate cut materializes, BTC may surge, but it could also spike first and then sharply decline. ETH is usually more sensitive than BTC, and altcoin rallies often wait for the second phase — that is, the “post-positive news catch-up rally.”
My trading strategy:
1) Prioritize ETH over BTC for early positioning, as ETH has greater flexibility;
2) For altcoins, focus on projects with solid structures and ongoing narratives, such as AXL, HYPER, WIF;
3) Avoid aggressive leverage, especially at times like 3 a.m., when blood pressure tends to spike;
4) If there is no rate cut, the market may initially decline, but I will continue to accumulate spot positions below, as the medium-term trend remains bullish.
To sum up in one sentence:
Rate cuts ≠ guaranteed rise, but market sentiment will stay relatively strong. The real profit comes from riding the trend, not gambling on瞬间.