Bitcoin and Ethereum face death cross despite the rally; understand

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bitcoin and Ethereum Face Death Cross Despite Rally; Understand Why Original Link: Monday’s session brought a touch of green to the cryptocurrency market, but before you start planning your Lamborghini order, take a look at the charts—they recommend a more cautious approach.

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $3.08 trillion, according to market data, about 1% below the previous day, but still within the $3 trillion range that buyers have been desperately defending.

Additionally, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to 24—still firmly in the “Fear” zone—but this is a recovery from the “Extreme Fear” levels of 10 seen at the end of November when Bitcoin flirted with the $80,000 level.

The big picture? We are in a post-all-time-high bearish correction that may be consolidating into something more prolonged.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have confirmed death crosses—a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day mark. If history is any guide, the next year could shape up as a crypto winter. On the other hand, previous death crosses in this cycle marked local bottoms, not precipices. The verdict is still out.

On the macroeconomic front, investors are betting on an almost 90% probability of an interest rate cut by the US central bank this Wednesday. Lower interest rates typically make risk assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive compared to bonds, but it remains to be seen if this will be enough to undo the technical damage.

Bitcoin: The $90,000 Battleground

Bitcoin is trading this morning at $90,220, down about 2% on the day, but up 3.3% over the past 7 days. The leading cryptocurrency hit an intraday high of $92,296 and found support at $89,618 on Monday. Nothing dramatic, but it still shows how bears can play even during a minor recovery.

Bitcoin’s EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) are bearish: the 50-day mark is trading below the 200-day level, confirming the death cross that formed on November 16, with prices well above the EMA50 resistance.

Ichimoku clouds—another complex indicator that aims to predict future prices based on past movements—signal a bearish setup for the immediate future, so things don’t look great, even if prices are rising.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at 32.9, which is arguably strong trend territory—any value above 25 confirms a trend is underway and above 30 means it’s gaining strength. Right now, that trend points downward. The ADX does not indicate direction, only strength. Combined with the bearish EMA setup, this suggests the downtrend is strong enough.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44.26, firmly in neutral territory—not oversold enough to attract bargain hunters, but not overbought enough to trigger profit-taking. It’s that unstable middle ground where neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator (Squeeze Momentum Indicator) is showing bullish momentum in a squeeze zone, meaning there will be a battle between buyers and sellers in this zone, likely trying to break through the resistance that has been forming for weeks and is visible on the charts as the dotted white line.

Key levels to watch:

• Resistance: $99,036 (immediate), $105,000 (strong/200-day EMA)
• Support: $82,084 (immediate), $68,384 (strong)

Ethereum: The $3,000 Question

Ethereum is having a slightly better day than its bigger sibling, recently trading at $3,108, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization opened at $3,060 yesterday, hit a high of $3,180, and found its floor at $3,041, reclaiming the psychological $3,000 level for a time.

This represents a solid 10% rally on the weekly candle charts.

Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is trading under death cross conditions—the 50-day EMA is below the 200-day mark, signaling that short-term momentum has been weaker than the long-term trend. The ADX at 35.45 confirms a strong downtrend underway, considering all factors.

The RSI at 49.67 is essentially neutral, with a slight upward tilt, suggesting that selling pressure is easing. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator (Squeeze Momentum Indicator) is showing bullish momentum, indicating the market squeeze may resolve to the upside. That said, ETH is trading below the cloud with a bearish future projection. When multiple indicators conflict like this, it usually means the market hasn’t made up its mind yet.

What should traders watch? The $3,174 level (0.5 Fibonacci) serves as immediate resistance—ETH is essentially testing this zone right now. Above that, $3,596 represents the 0.382 retracement and a more significant hurdle, as it is also the level where the death cross was formed.

Key levels:

• Resistance: $3,174 (immediate), $3,596 (strong)
• Support: $2,753 (immediate), $2,152 (strong)

The Fed’s decision on Wednesday could inject some volatility, and if rate cuts materialize as expected, we could see a rally. But until BTC reclaims the 200-day EMA around $105,000 and ETH breaks its cloud resistance, this remains a bear market rally until proven otherwise.