84% probability of a rate cut! Will the Fed give the market a "Christmas surprise" this time?

This week’s Fed meeting is like the crypto world’s “final boss fight of the year.” The market is pricing in an 84% chance of a 25BP rate cut, which is basically saying: “Guys, Christmas is coming early.” But here’s the question—does a rate cut = guaranteed rebound?

I think the answer has two parts:
First, in the short-term sentiment aspect, as long as the rate cut is implemented, liquidity expectations will instantly rise, and the market usually sees a “reflexive rebound,” especially for major coins like BTC and ETH, which tend to pump first and then reassess.
Second, in the mid-term trend, the rate cut is just the first step—what’s more important is whether the Fed signals “continued easing.” If the tone is dovish, the market could open up even further; if it’s hawkish, people might start doubting everything again.

Trading strategies:
* Short-term traders: Can take small positions before the announcement, and after the decision, follow the direction of the first big candle to ride a wave of sentiment-driven premium.
* Conservative approach: Wait for the meeting to conclude and volatility to settle before entering, to avoid the old trap of “the top is in right after the news.”
* Major coin strategy: Accumulate BTC and ETH in batches on dips—the rebound is more certain here.
* Altcoin strategy: Only play structurally strong coins, don’t go bottom-fishing for junk.
In short, this meeting isn’t about whether the market will rebound, but about how far the rebound can go. #美联储降息预测