Attention to those closely watching the markets: there are three key events in December that could directly impact the trend over the next few weeks.

First up is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on December 11. Initially, the market thought there would be no change this time, but now the probability of a rate cut has suddenly surged to 87%. This shift came out of nowhere.

Next, on the 19th, we have the Bank of Japan. Previously, most people thought there would be no rate hike in December, but this Monday, their governor made public remarks that strongly hinted at action. Now, the market generally believes the probability of a rate hike is quite high.

The last one is on the 26th: Bitcoin’s massive year-end options expiry. This isn’t an ordinary settlement—it’s both the end of Q4 and the full year, with a notional value hitting $23 billion. Expiry days of this magnitude have always been extremely volatile.

The issue with the first two news events is that both a Fed rate cut and a Bank of Japan rate hike are already significant, but the sudden reversal in market expectations makes things even more unpredictable. With two layers of uncertainty stacked together, volatility is likely to be significant.

Looking at the options data, the Bitcoin options max pain point is at $100,000, with the peak in PUTs around $84,000. In other words: it will be tough for BTC to hold above $100K in December, but there are institutions that have put in downside protection at $84K. After dropping below $84K a few days ago, the price quickly bounced back without much bottoming, most likely due to this protective layer.

For the next three weeks, it’s best to watch more and act less.