If you take a long-term view of Bitcoin over the past decade or so, you'll notice a stunning fact: no matter how crazy the market gets, the main thread of the 4-year cycle has never been broken.



Look at the charts—the timing of the peaks seems almost set in stone: a wave in 2012, another in 2017, and another in 2021. What about now? The 2025 peak is already on its way. Each interval is locked in at between 1,420 to 1,450 days, the precision is almost uncanny.

But it gets even more intense. After every peak comes a brutal correction—2012 saw a 79% drop, 2017 crashed by 81%, and 2021 was no exception, with a 75% drawdown that made many question everything. The timing is consistent, the magnitude of ups and downs is similar, and even the market sentiment feels almost identical.

Every time, there are always people insisting, "This time is really different." But the data tells the story: the cycle never misses a beat. Don’t forget, we just had a halving in 2024, and according to past patterns, the main bull run window opens 12 to 18 months after the halving. By that measure, 2025 is exactly that point.

The current volatility? Just business as usual within the cycle. If the script sticks to the old routine, we’re now standing right at the starting line for the final sprint.

So here’s the question: will you let short-term swings lead you by the nose, or will you stick to the cycle and charge ahead? The real action hasn’t even started yet—whether you grab a piece of the pie depends on whether you believe in this pattern.
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MelonFieldvip
· 12-12 05:47
The cycle, to put it simply, is self-fulfillment. The more people believe in it, the more it becomes reality.
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OPsychologyvip
· 12-12 00:40
The four-year cycle is really incredible; the data is there, so it can't lie.
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GweiWatchervip
· 12-11 16:04
I'm tired of the four-year cycle explanation. The key question is, do the believers make money?
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fren.ethvip
· 12-09 17:36
Here we go again with the 4-year cycle theory. People were saying the same thing last year, and what happened? History may repeat itself, but it never copies exactly. Don’t trust the data too much, my friend. Is the post-halving surge really that predictable? I seem to recall surprises every time. If it drops 80% again this time, how many retail investors will get wiped out? Instead of studying cycles, it’s better to watch what institutions are doing right now. It feels like Bitcoin is becoming more and more correlated with traditional finance. Does the pure 4-year cycle really still work? Betting on cycles is less effective than betting on policy—a single statement from the Fed can break all technical analysis. How high can it go in 2025? I’ll just watch quietly. This logic sounds too perfect, which actually makes me a bit suspicious.
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MetaverseHobovip
· 12-09 17:36
Cycles are really something magical; we still have to see what happens in 2025.
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SillyWhalevip
· 12-09 17:34
I've heard this 4-year cycle theory several times already. Every time it sounds convincing, but I still end up getting burned. Just take it as a joke, don’t really treat history as the future. Who knows if 2025 will be the peak? Anyway, I’m just lying flat now. The data might look good, but when it comes to your own money, no cycle pattern can save you. Sounds good in theory, but when the real market comes, it all depends on the coin price. It’s the same logic again—every cycle, some people believe it, and every time they get taught a lesson. 12 to 18 months after the halving? Sounds like a good plan, but reality might cut you off. I just want to know when I can break even. I don’t believe in any of these cycle theories.
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FancyResearchLabvip
· 12-09 17:15
In theory, this 4-year cycle shouldn't fool me again... but right after I said that, I got trapped again.
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WenMoon42vip
· 12-09 17:13
Cycles are really as precise as a clock. Those who didn't believe it are probably feeling a bit nervous now.
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AirdropHunter420vip
· 12-09 17:11
It’s already 2025 and people are still talking about cycles. I just want to ask one question: can you make money or not?
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