The BTC balance on exchanges has dropped to a new low of 2,936,000 coins. Is this rebound possibly not over yet?

Question

[Bitpush] A trader recently uncovered an interesting signal—the total BTC balance across major exchanges has dropped to just 2,936,000 coins, marking the lowest point of this cycle. What does this mean? More and more coins are being withdrawn from exchanges, stashed away in on-chain cold wallets to gather dust, with no intention of returning to be sold.

The last time we saw this was back on December 17, 2022. That was right after the FTX collapse, when trust in centralized platforms was shattered and people were frantically withdrawing coins for self-custody, causing exchange balances to plunge. But this time, the situation is a bit different—it’s not a panic-driven retreat, but more like proactive accumulation.

The current situation is quite subtle: large holders on-chain aren’t selling, retail selling pressure on exchanges is weak, and the trend of declining demand is starting to slow down. The combination of these factors is indeed paving the way for a rebound. So after the price found support at the $80,000 level, this rally probably isn’t over yet.

But whether it can continue to push higher still depends on how market sentiment and risk appetite evolve. After all, data is just one aspect—the real rally needs capital and confidence to follow through.

GlueGuy · Accepted Answer

What does these numbers mean? Mainly, big players are accumulating, unlike during the FTX panic.

293.6 million coins in exchange balances hitting a new low. It sounds impressive, but upon closer thought, everyone is just letting their cold wallets gather dust, each hoping it can still rise later.

From the 80,000 rebound to this position, there should still be room, it just depends on whether it can really break through. Anyway, I think this wave won't end so easily.

Large players are locking in their positions, and retail investors aren't under much selling pressure either, paving the way. But in the end, it still depends on how the macroeconomics and capital flows develop.

LiquiditySurfer · Answer

This is the optimal surf point for market making... Major players simply lock their positions, retail investors have no selling pressure, and liquidity depth is actually accumulating, a classic bearish trap signal.

MEVSandwichVictim · Answer

The cold wallets are full of whale holdings, while retail investors are still buying in at the bottom.

Anon4461 · Answer

These whales are really aggressive with hoarding coins. Looks like this rebound still has potential.

AirdropHunterXiao · Answer

2.936 million coins moved into cold wallets; this move is definitely something.

People are really waking up and no longer trust centralization.

This is different from the panic during the FTX crash in 2022. Now it feels like rational accumulation.

Can the rebound continue? Let's see if it can break through next.

With whales being so strong and retail investors not putting much selling pressure, there’s definitely some room for imagination.

Forget it, better to wait and see—being cautious is never wrong.

The coins sitting in cold wallets, that’s a signal, everyone.

From 80,000 to now, the technicals are looking promising.