Paradigm Reveals Polymarket Data Bug: Most Analytics Tools Are Double Counting Trading Volume

2025-12-09 02:20:35

Abstract generation in progress

[Chain News] Paradigm recently published a technical analysis specifically digging into Polymarket’s data issues. After their team did a deep dive into the prediction market’s contract code and event data, they discovered a pretty serious bug—almost all the tools and dashboards analyzing Polymarket are double-counting trading volume.

Where’s the problem? Turns out, Polymarket’s on-chain data structure is quite complex. Many people, for convenience, simply sum up the OrderFilled event data, which ends up double-counting both the contract amount and the USD volume. Surprisingly, this flawed algorithm is widely used in the industry.

Paradigm suggests the correct approach: prediction markets should use one-sided trading volume for statistics—either focus on the taker’s volume or the market maker’s data, but not both. This finding sets a valuable reference for data analysis standards across the entire prediction market sector.

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ContractExplorer

· 6h ago

Damn, how long has this bug been hiding, and why is it only now being uncovered? --- Another "industry standard" gets exposed, how much of the data in this circle can be trusted? --- Paradigm's surgical strike was too perfect, offending how many dashboard folks? --- Haha, the loss flow doubles, no wonder the trading volume looks so outrageous. --- Isn't it actually simple to calculate unilateral trading volume statistics? Why did everyone fall into this trap? --- Low-level errors like double counting surprisingly run rampant in market prediction, gg. --- I knew why the dashboard data was so surreal—it turns out it was all duplicated ghosts. --- Now it's all good; all previous analyses need to be halved and rechecked. --- A bunch of people making decisions based on fake data from this bug, hard to imagine.

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AirdropHunterXiao

· 12-10 01:56

Haha, this is awkward. All of Polymarket's data is inflated. --- No wonder I thought those dashboard numbers were so outrageous. Turns out it's all self-deception. --- Paradigm's exposé is really tough. Feels like most tools will need to update their code. --- This just shows that on-chain data isn't as transparent as we imagined. The issues are pretty painful. --- Even a basic concept like one-sided trading volume can go wrong. Shows that prediction markets are still in their early days. --- I knew those trading volume numbers didn’t look right. Now the truth is out. --- Are all dashboards double-counting? How reliable are the current ranking numbers then? --- Well, now we need to reassess the data quality of the entire ecosystem. --- What Paradigm did is a bit like giving the market a checkup—only to find nothing but problems.

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OnlyUpOnly

· 12-09 02:50

Damn, that's why none of the data I was looking at matched up. Unbelievable, so many tools are just making up numbers, no wonder the figures look so ridiculous. Paradigm really went hard, directly exposing this whole scheme. Now we have to re-examine all the Polymarket data... No wonder some of the numbers seemed so inflated. An industry-level bug fix, noted. Just the OrderFilled alone doubled, this must have screwed over so many people. Finally, someone has explained this clearly. Honestly, someone should have checked the on-chain logic a long time ago.

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BridgeNomad

· 12-09 02:47

lmao every single dashboard been double-counting tvl this whole time? that's giving "we copy-pasted the indexing logic without reading the docs" energy. seen this exact pattern with bridge vulnerabilities tbh—everyone builds on the same flawed assumption til someone actually audits the contract logic. paradigm doing the lord's work here, ngl.

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ApeWithNoChain

· 12-09 02:36

Damn, now all the dashboard data has become fake? Wait, no wonder I always felt the trading volume on Polymarket was absurd... Paradigm just put the prediction market data standard right on the table with this move—savage. Another "industry-wide issue" has been exposed. Feels like that's just how Web3 is. There's really no need to make contract design this complicated. Should I laugh or cry at this doubled data? No wonder the data in this space never matches up. Turns out the problem is this fundamental... Now all those dashboards will have to recalculate everything. Damn. Single-sided trading volume sounds simple, but when you actually do it, it's not that easy. Feels like Paradigm is here to clean up the mess. Props to them.

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PoetryOnChain

· 12-09 02:27

Damn, all these tools have been double-counting? No wonder I always felt the data was off. Now this is awkward—even top influencers might be using the wrong data in their analysis. Paradigm did a great job this time, finally someone cleared things up. Counting both sides, no wonder the volume doubled... The industry really needs some standards. These bugs existed for so long before being discovered, that’s really frustrating.

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