JPMorgan: Despite Bitcoin's recent plunge, maintains $170,000 gold-anchored target price

On December 5, despite the recent sharp decline in Bitcoin, JPMorgan remains committed to its “volatility-adjusted Bitcoin vs. Gold model,” which indicates a theoretical target price of around $170,000 for Bitcoin over the next 6 to 12 months. In a Wednesday report, JPMorgan pointed out that Strategy remains a key driving factor for Bitcoin, with the market closely watching its enterprise value to Bitcoin holdings ratio (mNAV). This ratio is currently about 1.13; if it falls below 1.0, it would be seen as a risk signal for “forced Bitcoin selling.” The fact that mNAV is still above 1.0 is reassuring. Analysts noted the company holds $1.4 billion in reserve funds, which can serve as a buffer to avoid having to sell Bitcoin. They also emphasized that the MSCI’s index decision on January 15 will act as an “asymmetric catalyst”: if excluded, most of the negative impact has already been reflected in the sharp drop since October 10; if the result is favorable, it could trigger a sharp rebound in the stock price. In recent weeks, Bitcoin has plunged from a record high of over $120,000 to as low as $82,000. JPMorgan has lowered its estimated production cost of Bitcoin from $94,000 to $90,000, due to a recent drop in hash rate and mining difficulty. Analysts pointed out that if Bitcoin’s price remains below the production cost for an extended period, it could trigger a “self-reinforcing cycle”: marginal miners exit → difficulty drops → production cost further decreases—similar to what happened in 2018. The report adds that the deleveraging of perpetual contracts since October 10 has largely ended.