Are US Treasury yields stuck in a tug-of-war? Strategist: The 4%-4.1% range may persist for some time

In the crypto world, two interest rate strategists from ING recently made an interesting assessment: the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond is highly likely to fluctuate repeatedly in the 4% to 4.1% range in the short term.

Their reasoning goes like this: dropping below 4%? It’s possible, but it’s likely to be short-lived, as the market currently lacks sufficient reasons to support a further decline. But breaking above 4.1%? That’s the real signal to watch. Once it holds above that level, it could become a structural theme all the way through 2026.

In other words, the market currently lacks enough momentum to break below support, but is also cautious about moving higher. This wait-and-see attitude suggests the market is waiting for clearer directional guidance. For investors focused on the macro environment, this 4%-4.1% range is worth keeping a close eye on.