I noticed a phenomenon in the past two days: the Bitcoin position of BlackRock has shown subtle fluctuations. There are also similar rumors coming from Tether. These large institutions claim to be investing for the long term, but their actual operations may not be so calm.

This set of practices by institutions is actually quite classic – they make a high-profile announcement when entering the market, with press releases coming in one after another; but when it comes to adjusting positions? The actions are pitifully small. The reason is simple: when liquidity is tight, whoever is slow becomes the exit liquidity for the opposing party.

The news that MicroStrategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings is no longer fresh. What is more worth paying attention to? The subtle shift in market sentiment. Just take a look at the on-chain data, and you'll see that the frequency of large funds entering exchanges is rising, but public discussions are unusually quiet. This silence is actually more dangerous.

Institutions are not foolish. They know when to collectively create momentum and when to act low-key. Don't be misled by the narrative of "institutional long-termism"; that's a script for retail investors. With the size of large funds at play, they must plan their exit strategies in advance. By the time ordinary investors notice something is off, they may have already completed most of their reallocation operations.

At this stage, it's better to pay less attention to optimistic predictions from news sources. Focus more on on-chain data, especially the net inflow indicators from exchanges. The quieter the market, the more vigilance is required — this could be the last calm before significant capital exits. $BTC