Arthur Hayes advocates again: BTC to hit $250,000 by the end of the year?

Question

[比推] Arthur Hayes, co-founder of a certain trading platform, recently made a statement - BTC could reach 250,000 dollars by the end of the year.

There is less than a month left until the New Year, and this prediction sounds quite bold? But the logical chain provided by Hayes is relatively clear:

First, let's look at the technical aspect. He believes that the previous pullback to around 80,000 USD was a phase bottom, and the liquidity of the US dollar has also bottomed out. The round of leveraged liquidation in October? It's over. The institutional ETF basis arbitrage strategy? They have also more or less pulled back. The market sentiment has basically been reset.

Looking at the macro level again. The Federal Reserve may stop quantitative tightening (QT), and the expectation of interest rate cuts is also rising. Once these catalysts are realized, liquidity improvement is highly likely.

The current historical high for BTC is around $126,000. If the above conditions are met, Hayes believes that hitting $250,000 is not impossible—of course, this would require the market to almost double its gains within 30 days.

Do you think this prediction is reliable? Or is it just another routine operation of “celebrity endorsements”?

FarmToRiches · Accepted Answer

Haha, Hayes is stirring up the hype again, 250,000 dollars? Is he dreaming?

HackerWhoCares · Answer

Uh, 250,000 dollars? This guy Hayes is telling stories again.

MetaMisery · Answer

Hayes is telling stories again, 250,000 dollars? I bet five bucks we won&#39;t see it by the end of the year.

YieldFarmRefugee · Answer

250,000 dollars? Hayes is daydreaming again.

CryptoPunster · Answer

$250,000? Dude, are you writing science fiction or do you really believe in this? I&#39;ve never seen a doubling market, but I&#39;ve seen plenty of doubling bluffs.

Hayes&#39; logic chain this time is indeed more rigorous than last time, but the problem is... these conditions are always "about to be fulfilled," and what’s the result? The suckers are starving.

Even if it really reaches $250,000, I bet five bucks that by then I would have already sleepwalked and sold at $150,000.