Wharton School alumnus takes you through the interpretation of next week's crypto market:

This is a comprehensive review and outlook based on the recent completion of Friday's options settlement (CET time Saturday early morning) combined with data from the entire network (on-chain, derivatives, capital flow).
Core tone: The biggest "roadblock" has been cleared, and the bulls have achieved a phased victory.
The options Delivery on Friday is a key battle. The general expectation beforehand was that Market Makers would attempt to suppress the Bitcoin price to the "Max Pain" (around $85,000) to maximize their own interests.
However, this did not happen.
Bitcoin prices are strongly maintained above the pain point (assuming currently in the $90k+ range), which means that the active buying power in the market (spot ETF + institutional allocation + whale bottom-fishing) far outweighs the manipulation intentions of market makers.
This is like a tug-of-war match, where one side (the short sellers/market makers) tries to pull the rope over the center line, but the other side (the long buyers) not only holds their ground but also pulls the other side further away.
The current situation is: the biggest short-term reliance of the bears has disappeared, while the bulls still have plenty of "gunpowder."
1. Big Pie (BTC): The aircraft carrier deck has been cleared and is ready to take off.
From the perspective of institutional traders, the current Bitcoin market structure is very healthy, even a bit "too good to be true".
1. The "reflexivity" of the derivation market: market makers are forced to cover.
This is the most fundamental logic of the weekend's rise.
* Before Delivery: In order to hedge the sold Put options, market makers need to hold a certain short position in the futures market.
* After Delivery: Since the price did not fall below the pain point, most of these put Options expire worthless. Market makers no longer need those hedge short positions.
* Consequences: They must buy to close these short positions in the market. This mechanical buying pressure, combined with the inherently weak liquidity over the weekend, can easily trigger an upward price movement (Gamma recovery effect).
2. on-chain funds: the bullet is loaded, but hasn't been fired out.
* Data Review: During the period from Wednesday to Friday, we monitored a massive influx of USDC and USDT into Coinbase Prime and Binance institutional accounts. This is the "spare ammunition" that institutions are preparing for the delivery day dump.
* Current situation: Because there has not been a deep sell-off, most of these ammunition has not been used.
* Derivation: This massive amount of "Dry Powder" is currently sitting in the exchanges. It is unlikely to remain idle for long and will probably convert into real spot buying by the weekend or early next week.
3. Holding structure: Retail investors get off, diamond hands get on
* Short-term holders (STH): On-chain data shows that the selling volume of losses among short-term holders has surged in the past week. The panic selling has almost been washed out.
* Long-term holders (LTH) and new whales: Unlike retail investors, the number of addresses holding more than 100 BTC has increased in the past 48 hours. Chips are being transferred from the hands of the weak holders to the true leaders of this bull market.
BTC Conclusion: There may be slight fluctuations over the weekend due to insufficient liquidity, but the downside space is extremely locked (the $88,000 line has become a solid bottom). The market is building momentum, waiting for the institutional capital assault after the opening of the US stock market next Monday.
2. Two Cakes (ETH): The eve of "violent rebound" after extreme suppression
If Bitcoin is a "clear long", then Ethereum is currently the largest source of "expectation difference" and "cognitive difference" in the market.
1. The "stunning divergence" between funds and emotions
This is the most core logical point.
* Sentiment (across the network): A chorus of criticism. The foundation is selling coins, Vitalik is dating/philosophizing, Layer 2 is sucking the mainnet dry... Various FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) is rampant, and retail investors' disdain for ETH has reached its peak.
* Capital situation (institutions): Extremely greedy. BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FETH) have seen contrarian, continuous net purchases of Ethereum ETFs in the past few trading days (including Friday).
* Big Shot Perspective: When retail investors are selling out of emotion, and giants like BlackRock are buying in, who should you trust? Institutions don't care about Vitalik's gossip; they only care about whether the current price of ETH is cheap relative to its ecological value and future cash flows (Staking returns). The answer is: very cheap.
2. The "Death Stare" of Exchange Rates and Reversal
* ETH/BTC exchange rate: fell to a multi-year low near 0.033.
* Quantitative Model: For the quantitative model of macro hedge funds, the Z-Score (standard score) at this position is extremely low, triggering a strong "mean reversion" buy signal. In other words, the arbitrage strategy of going long ETH/short BTC now has a very high risk-reward ratio.
* Derivation: Once Bitcoin stabilizes, market risk appetite will rise, and funds will certainly seek out "more resilient" targets. The oversold Ethereum is the best choice, and the exchange rate rebound is imminent.
3. on-chain chip peak: $3,000 turnover
* On-chain data shows that there was an extremely dense turnover of chips in the range of $2,950 - $3,050. A large amount of old chips exited the market, while new whale addresses established massive positions at this level.
* This range has turned from a resistance level into a solid institutional cost support level.
ETH Conclusion: Like a spring that has been compressed to the limit. Although it looks the weakest now, once the rebound starts, its explosive power will be stronger than Bitcoin. The goal is to first recover 3,200, and then challenge 3,500.
Top-level perspective weekend strategy summary
* Don't be disturbed by the weekend noise: The trading volume is low on weekends, making it easy for the main players to use a small amount of funds to manipulate the K-line to lure in more buyers or sellers. Focus on the core logic (Delivery completed, institutions are buying), and ignore short-term fluctuations.
* Spot holding steady: If you hold spot BTC and ETH, now is the safest time. The most dangerous moment (Delivery eve) has passed.
* Pay attention to the rebound opportunity of ETH: If your position is overly concentrated in #BTC, now is still a good time to exchange part of your position for ETH to seek excess returns from the exchange rate rebound.
* Next Monday is crucial: The real showdown will occur when the US stock market opens next Monday. At that time, the pent-up demand for market makers to cover and the "dry powder" from institutions will jointly impact the market.
In summary: The eye of the storm has passed, the whales are wiping the deck, preparing for the next wave. Don't jump ship at this time.