Why is Sports Betting the Biggest Illusion for Newbie Predictors?

When I first came into contact with Polymarket, I thought that the sports market was "easy to understand":
High information density, fast pace, and stimulating market fluctuations seem to provide an edge with a little research.

It wasn't until after a long time that I realized:
The essence of the sports market is one word - randomness.

1) The sports market has no event chain
The charts that I can truly form judgments on are those with clear nodes, traceable signals, deletable paths, and will ultimately converge.
The sports market does not have this structure at all.
Player status, injuries, rhythm changes, tactical choices—these are all noise that cannot be quantified in advance.
The more I try to "find logic," the more I tell stories in randomness.

2) The fluctuations of the sports market will not provide me with any structural information.
Q1 leads, Q2 reverses, Q3 crashes, it looks a lot like "rhythm".
But in reality, it is just high-frequency random jitter.
No world lines, no trends, no convergence space.
I thought I could trade in waves at the time, but later realized that it was just my emotions deceiving myself.

3) The biggest trap in sports betting is: making me mistakenly believe that I "understand" it.
The more data there is, the stronger the illusion.
But what prediction can determine is never the details, but the structure:
Path, node, signal, deviation, trend.
All sports betting options are missing.

It was only after doing it for a while that I accepted a counterintuitive idea:
The more I analyze in the sports market, the further I am from the edge.

Because what you are analyzing is a "scenario,"
What prediction needs is the "world line."

For me, the market that can truly train my judgment is actually quite fixed:

Structure Disk
• Capital Limit Plate (Large Fundraising, Continuous Accumulation)
• Mismatched Term Structure (Yield Inversion, Expiration Window)
• Single Point Institutional Behavior Plate (Forced Operation, Quarterly Adjustment)

Event Chain Disk
• Court ruling chain (Appeal → Hearing → Judgment)
• Technology Release Chain (Test → Leak → Official Announcement)
• Economic Data Chain (Expectation → Signal → Release)

Policy Convergence Disk
• Interest rate path (Statement → Dot plot → Meeting)
• Government action window (sanctions, approvals, unblocking)
• Compliance deadline (Declaration → Approval → Effectiveness)

These discs have signals, nodes, trends, convergence, and review space.
There is no item in the sports market.

The sports betting tells me it's about "feeling in judgment";
The structure chart really helps me in making judgments.