Bitcoin market faces adjustment risks due to indicator overheating = CryptoQuant analysis

## Already adjusted

According to CryptoQuant’s analysis report on the 29th, Bitcoin (BTC) updated its all-time high to $111,814 last week, and the bullish trend continues. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index recorded 80, maintaining a bullish market territory based on on-chain activity. Historically, as long as this index remains above 50, Bitcoin tends to continue rising. (Below is the content of CryptoQuant’s report)

Source: CryptoQuant

However, some demand indicators are reaching short-term peaks, which could bring a pause to the current rise. In fact, following this week’s Trump tariff news and the FOMC minutes, BTC fell below $106,000 on the 30th, recording a decline of over 5.5% compared to the previous week.

The demand growth for Bitcoin over the past 30 days is estimated at 229,000 BTC, approaching the previous peak of 279,000 BTC in December 2024. The Bitcoin balance of large holders has also increased by 2.8% over the past month, reaching a level that historically indicates a slowdown in the accumulation pace.

Source: CryptoQuant

Additionally, the unrealized profit margin of traders is approaching levels that typically indicate price resistance. The unrealized profit margin of on-chain traders reached 32% last week when Bitcoin closed at $111,000. Historically, when this indicator approaches 40% or falls below the current value of the 30-day moving average at 19%, price increases tend to slow down.

Source: CryptoQuant

Furthermore, even if Bitcoin continues to rise, there is a high likelihood that $120,000 will serve as the next major resistance level. This price represents the upper band of the on-chain realized price for traders, and it is the level at which the unrealized profits of on-chain traders reach 40%. Historically, this upper band has functioned as a significant resistance line for Bitcoin during bull markets. (In a bull market, when the market price falls below the realized price, it is considered a “buying opportunity” because it falls below the average acquisition price of short-term holders.)

Current analysis indicates that bullish conditions are being maintained; however, the overheating of demand indicators and the high levels of profit margins suggest short-term adjustment risks.

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