The Federal Reserve meeting announced the latest developments: uncertainty in economic outlook is increasing, and there may be one to two interest rate cuts before the end of the year.

On May 28, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the meeting held on May 6-7, indicating that although the federal funds rate remains between 4.25% and 4.5%, uncertainty about the future of the economy has significantly increased. Officials at the meeting unanimously agreed that they need to closely monitor subsequent data and respond cautiously to potential risks, especially in the context of rising unemployment rates and inflationary pressures.

According to the benchmark path of options pricing strategies, the current mainstream market expectation indicates that there may be 1 to 2 rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points. This prediction also reflects a gradually warming expectation of economic slowdown.

At the same time, well-known commentator Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed's messenger," disclosed that the Federal Reserve officials' concerns about the current economic situation are not limited to traditional growth pressures, but also include the rising risk of stagflation.

Federal Reserve officials have stated that recent tariff adjustments could drive up prices, leading to a "significant" rise in inflation, while the unemployment rate may also remain high in the coming years.

In summary, this series of signals indicates that despite the economic forecasts for June possibly leaning towards dovishness, officials remain cautious about the future economic direction.

Although the market expects one to two rate cuts by the end of the year, this is more of a preventive measure against economic slowdown rather than an excessive pessimism about the economic outlook.

In this context, investors need to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's subsequent actions and macroeconomic data to respond to potential market fluctuations.

#美联储会议纪要 # year-end interest rate cut expectations #economic outlook