Bitunix Analyst: Inflation reasserts dominance in policy direction, energy supply shocks spread, BTC maintains sideways trend

BlockBeats message, April 7, against the backdrop of ongoing escalation in the Iran conflict and the effective restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, market expectations for a policy shift this year have started to show clear signs of wavering. Federal Reserve officials, in a rare show of near unanimity, emphasized that «inflation comes before employment,» meaning the current policy framework has moved away from the past «balancing two objectives» toward a one-sided defense under supply shocks. Meanwhile, the White House’s attempt to use productivity gains brought by AI as a potential rationale for rate cuts actually reflects internal policy disagreement over the future inflation path, rather than genuine easing conditions having matured.

From the perspective of policy and international responses, the IMF has clearly stated that the global economy is now entering a «high inflation, low growth» channel. An energy supply contraction is not only limited to oil and gas itself—it has begun to seep into fertilizers, transportation, and the industrial chain, which gives inflation a stronger stickiness. Even if the conflict cools in the short term, the supply repair cycle is still likely to be extended, indicating that inflation pressure will not fall quickly, further reinforcing the rationale for central banks to maintain a tight stance.

Cross-market capital behavior has begun to reflect this shift. Expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back, and service-sector prices have moved back upward, keeping real rate expectations at high levels and suppressing the valuation foundation for risk assets. At the same time, rising energy prices and geopolitical risk moving in tandem have made capital more inclined toward defensive and cash-flow assets rather than high-volatility risk exposures.

Returning to the structure of the crypto market, BTC is currently still trading within a clearly defined liquidity range. Around 69,800 USD overhead, a high-density short liquidation and passive liquidity accumulation zone has formed, which is a typical pressure area and also the main spot where recent rebounds have been blocked. Only if it can effectively hold above this level can it be taken as the market being willing to re-underwrite risk. Below, between 66,000 and 65,000 USD, long liquidations and liquidity absorption have been accumulating, forming a short-term defensive zone; once it is breached, it will trigger cascading deleveraging. The current price has repeatedly tested the upper boundary but has not been able to extend the move, showing that under macro uncertainty, capital remains relatively conservative, tending to harvest liquidity within the range rather than pushing for a trend breakout.