Gate News update: According to the latest on-chain data, net stablecoin inflows on major platforms have turned positive, reaching roughly $2.4 billion. This signals that capital is being released and flowing back into the crypto market. However, compared with the rebound in liquidity, trading activity remains low, and market sentiment is clearly cautious.
Analyst Darkfost noted that the market previously saw multiple rounds of large-scale capital outflows, such as net outflows in the billions of dollars recorded in December 2025 and February 2026. When capital starts flowing back in, it often means investors are ready to deploy funds and build positions—an early signal that a potential market move may be starting.
But what actually unfolded has been a divergence. Data from research firm 10x Research shows that since early 2025, spot trading volume has dropped significantly, from about $81 billion to $3.5 billion. This reflects that while money has entered the market, it has not yet translated into real buying demand. In other words, liquidity is recovering, but risk appetite has not risen in sync.
From a structural perspective, this “capital is present, but trading is absent” condition can amplify potential volatility. If key price ranges are broken, combined with changes in the derivatives market’s gamma structure, it could trigger a sharp market movement. In the current environment of low liquidations and low trading volume, the market’s fragility is actually being masked.
On the macro front, continued escalation of the situation in the Middle East and rising inflation expectations are still influencing investment decisions. Higher oil prices and pressure on equities are pushing capital to be more conservative. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown some resilience in recent performance, the broader market still lacks a clear direction.
Against this backdrop, stablecoin inflows reflect more “watch-and-wait capital” than “aggressive capital.” The next phase will depend on whether trading volume can recover and whether macro risks ease. The market is currently in a transition stage of liquidity repair and rebuilding confidence.
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