Bitunix Analyst: Ceasefire alleviates supply shocks but does not change structural pressures; policy disagreements widen, and the market enters the "uncertainty premium-driven" phase.

BlockBeats message, April 8: the market undergoes a dramatic switch in a short period of time—from “a comprehensive upgrade to risk” to a “two-week ceasefire window.” On the surface, Iran accepts a ceasefire, there are expectations of restarting activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and the extreme shock to energy supply shows some marginal relief; but from the perspective of the decision-making process, this shift is not based on the conflict ending. Instead, it is a temporary concession under political pressure, the need for stability in financial markets, and negotiation games, meaning supply risk is only being postponed, not removed. At the same time, inside the Federal Reserve, there is still emphasis on upward inflation risks and weakening employment, showing that the policy environment remains in a “passive response to supply shocks” state.

In terms of policy and international responses, structural disagreements are widening. On the one hand, there is consensus among Federal Reserve officials that energy shocks will push inflation higher, and the logic for keeping interest rates at elevated levels has not been shaken; on the other hand, Japan’s wages hit a new high in decades, strengthening its expectations of further rate hikes, which means major global economies are tightening liquidity in sync. This “non-coordinated tightening,” combined with geopolitical uncertainty, prevents the market from establishing a stable interest-rate expectation anchor. Meanwhile, Russian energy infrastructure has been targeted, and Iran still retains bargaining chips to keep the strait closed—indicating that the energy supply chain remains highly fragile, and any event could once again trigger upward price pressure.