[Wind Vane Research Report] Intensive launches and accelerating IPO process: commercial spaceflight is expected to enter a new stage of rapid development

China’s A-share three major indexes moved strongly today. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.79%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.91%. The combined trading value of the three markets—Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing—exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, which represents a sharp increase in volume of more than 700 billion yuan versus yesterday. Industry sector shares were almost uniformly higher. Gains were led by gold and precious metals, advertising and marketing, IT services, components, semiconductors, media, aerospace equipment, software development, and consumer electronics. Only oil and petrochemicals, coal, and pharmaceutical distribution stocks fell against the trend. In terms of individual stocks, the number of advancing shares was close to 5,200, and more than 130 stocks hit their daily trading limit**.**

On April 7, at Hainan’s commercial space launch site, the Long March 8 launch vehicle sent the seventh batch of satellites of the Qianfan constellation into their scheduled orbit in an “one rocket, eighteen satellites” mode, and the launch was a complete success. In the near term, the commercial aerospace sector is expected to see dense catalysts. Rockets such as Nebula One, Long March 10乙, and Jiuque 3 have been scheduled for frequent launches. The pace of IPOs in the capital markets is accelerating. It is reported that SpaceX plans to publish its first draft IPO prospectus at the end of May. SpaceX plans to kick off IPO roadshows during the week of June 8.

In addition, according to reports from the 2026 CEC—published information from the 2026 IC—Cadre forum, it has been learned that: Based on estimates, in 2025, the size of China’s commercial aerospace core industry increased to 1.01 trillion yuan, up nearly 7% year over year. By the end of 2025, the number of commercial aerospace enterprises in China had exceeded 600, up more than 20%. The number of commercial launches and the number of commercial satellites placed into orbit have been growing rapidly. In 2025, China’s commercial space launches totaled 50 times, accounting for 54% of the country’s total launches; 311 commercial satellites were placed into orbit, representing 84% of the total satellites placed into orbit.

Ping An Securities said that aviation and aerospace, as one of the country’s important new-quality productive forces, has seen a ramp-up in launch missions in recent years under the backdrop of government support, technological progress, and supply-chain development. Dongxing Securities noted that during the “15th Five-Year Plan through 5th” period—commercial aerospace will become an important engine for driving new-quality productive forces and high-quality scientific and technological development in China. To secure valuable orbital and spectrum resources, the number of constellation satellite launches in China in 2026 is expected to accelerate further.

Ping An Securities: Relevant industry chains are expected to continue benefiting

Aviation and aerospace, as one of the country’s important new-quality productive forces, has seen an acceleration in launch missions in recent years under the backdrop of government support, technological progress, and supply-chain development. With China’s rocket launch costs continuing to decline and recovery technologies gradually maturing, the pace of rocket launches is expected to speed up further. In addition, the world is actively laying out space computing, and the Days-and-Methods—model is gradually shifting toward a Days-and-Days computing model, and the relevant industry chain is expected to continue benefiting.

Dongxing Securities: Bullish on investment opportunities in China’s satellite internet industry chain in 2026

During the “15th Five-Year Plan through 5th” period, commercial aerospace will become an important engine for driving new-quality productive forces and high-quality scientific and technological development in China. To secure valuable orbital and spectrum resources, the number of constellation satellite launches in China in 2026 is expected to accelerate further; private commercial rocket companies are expected to participate more deeply and become an effective supplement to the national team, jointly supporting the high-frequency launch demand. We are bullish on investment opportunities in China’s satellite internet industry chain in 2026.

CITIC Jian投: The future of commercial aerospace is the stars and the sea

The future of commercial aerospace is the stars and the sea. Both China and the United States place commercial aerospace at an extremely high strategic level. SpaceX leads in areas such as constellation deployment progress, rocket payload capacity and cost, revenue scale, and valuation scale. Driven by the strategic value of securing frequency and orbit and the commercial value of operational services, China’s policies support the development of commercial aerospace from both the industrial and capital-market sides. Domestic development is showing an accelerating and catch-up trend. Large reusable rockets have begun dense first flights, which is expected to gradually break through key bottlenecks in the industry and accelerate the realization of a closed-loop commercial aerospace industry. We like the future performance of the commercial aerospace sector. In the satellite segment, focus on payload overall design, antennas and supporting components, laser communication terminals and supporting components, and solar arrays and energy-system-related components. In the rocket segment, focus on engines and their 3D printing, and related rocket structural components. In the ground equipment segment, focus on consumer terminals and phone direct-connect related items. In the operational services segment, focus on companies that have rare qualifications.

BOC Securities: China’s commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a phase of rapid development

Against the backdrop of the scarcity of satellite orbital slots and frequency-band resources, competition among countries for satellite frequency-orbit resources has entered a state of intense heat. With the maturity of large-capacity and recoverable rocket technologies, a trillion-yuan-plus market for the commercial sector is opening up. At present, China has already formed capabilities that cover the entire commercial aerospace industry chain. We are now in a critical development stage of “from 1 to 10.” In the future, under the combined effects of multiple factors such as downstream demand, policies, and capital, China’s commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a phase of rapid development.

Ai Jian Securities: Global commercial aerospace is moving from the technology verification stage toward the scale stage

Global commercial aerospace is moving from the technology verification stage toward the scale stage. On the one hand, SpaceX’s Starship commercial launch plan is being advanced step by step, and heavy-lift capability is entering a sustained verification phase. On the other hand, with China’s commercial aerospace supported by policy and bolstered by improved industrial supporting arrangements, more commercial aerospace landing application scenarios are starting to appear, and rocket launch demand is further expanding. As satellite batch production and launch demand are gradually released, the industry-chain cycle is expected to transmit upward toward the upstream.

Founder Securities: 2026 China–US commercial aerospace progress will see catalyst resonance

In 2026, China–US commercial aerospace progress will see catalyst resonance. For the United States, SpaceX’s Starship V3 will conduct its first flight in April. Compared with V2, core indicators such as payload capacity and number of reusability cycles will be substantially improved. For China, both the national team and private rocket companies are pushing hard together. In the second quarter, China is expected to kick off a first-flight wave for recoverable rockets. Domestic satellite batch tenders are imminent, and the deployment of features such as phone direct-connect will drive further iterations of satellite performance. Satellites will then enter a stage of rising both volume and pricing. Founder Securities suggests paying attention to areas including rockets, satellite integration and operations, satellite payloads and components, solar arrays and energy-system components, space computing, overseas supply chains, and ground facilities.

(This article does not constitute any investment advice. All investors act at their own risk and bear all consequences. The market carries risk; investment requires caution.)

（Source: Eastmoney Research Center）