UAE Global Aluminum "Resumption of production may take 12 months"！ Nearly 30% of Middle Eastern capacity is shut down, making aluminum prices more likely to rise than fall

Ask AI · Why is a shutdown at Emirates Global Aluminium’s operations in the UAE shaking the nerves of the global supply chain?

According to Caixin Finance and Economics, recently Emirates Global Aluminium (UAE) said that its facilities have entered an emergency shutdown state. Preliminary indications show that a full restart of primary aluminum production may take as long as 12 months.

As disclosed, the damaged plant’s primary aluminum output in 2025 was 1.6 million tons, and its alumina output was 2.4 million tons, accounting for 46% of Emirates Global Aluminium’s total production capacity.

Relevant analysis indicates that the capacity affected by this incident is about 4% of global supply. Coupled with Emirates Global Aluminium having previously proactively shut down part of its capacity, and with Bahrain Aluminium Company having already voluntarily taken some capacity offline earlier, more than 30% of aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is currently idle. The supply loss will continue throughout 2026. With additional shipping disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, both Middle East aluminum firms’ raw-material supply and finished-product exports are constrained at the same time, directly increasing the risk that aluminum prices move higher.

China’s aluminum production and consumption have ranked No. 1 in the world for 24 consecutive years. In China’s total nonferrous metals output value, its share is 35%. 2025 is an important turning point in the development history of China’s aluminum industry. Under the guidance of policies such as the “Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025–2027),” the industry is accelerating its transition toward high-end, intelligent, and green development.

By the end of 2025, domestic capacity of electrolytic aluminum that has been built reached 44.83 million tons per year, essentially touching the compliance-capacity “ceiling” of 45 million tons. This means China’s electrolytic aluminum industry has officially moved from the stage of “incremental competition” to the stage of “stock optimization.” At the same time, in 2025, the proportion of green-power aluminum rose to 27.7%, and the share of recycled aluminum reached 20.8%, helping the industry achieve the carbon peak target 6 years ahead of schedule.

Looking ahead, in 2026, as demand for aluminum increases in the fields of new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and energy storage, it will drive continued growth in the high-end aluminum materials market. Meanwhile, on the supply side, constrained by the Middle East geopolitical conflicts and the “resonance” of China’s aluminum capacity ceiling, it is expected to support aluminum prices staying at relatively high levels. During the restructuring of the global aluminum supply chain, Chinese aluminum companies will continue to enhance their export competitiveness thanks to their capacity scale and cost advantages.

Specifically in the A-share market, in the medium to long term, companies with green capacity and a layout of high-end products will stand out in the midst of changes in the global aluminum industry. You may want to follow leading aluminum enterprises and aluminum companies with integrated business layouts. (Everbright Securities Micro Information)