Shanghai Aluminum: Market risk aversion persists, aluminum prices are in a volatile assessment 2026.3.30

MaticHoleFiller · 2026-03-30T08:49:08+00:00

Recently, aluminum market fluctuations have occurred, with the Shanghai aluminum main continuous contract slightly declining, while alumina has shown a significant retreat. Influenced by the Middle East conflict and expectations of economic slowdown, aluminum prices face increased downward pressure. The market should pay attention to subsequent building opportunities and supply-demand changes, while alumina remains expected to stay relatively strong.

MaticHoleFiller

2026-03-30 08:49:08

Abstract generation in progress

(Source: Huahuan Futures Research)

Market Review:

(2026.3.23-2026.3.27 Night Session):

The main aluminum futures contract closed at 24085 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of -0.35% last week, and a night session change of +0.63% on Friday.

The main alumina futures contract closed at 2914 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of -3.65% last week, and a night session change of -0.55% on Friday.

The main aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 23105 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of +0.57% last week, and a night session change of +0.63% on Friday.

Market Logic and Outlook for Next Week:

Main Logic for Aluminum:

Electrolytic Aluminum: This week, the continued war between the U.S. and Iran has raised concerns about the war’s persistence, which may last for a long period. Currently, major global economies are facing a dual blow in stocks and bonds, leading to high risk aversion and a continued decline in non-ferrous metals. Emirates Aluminum and Bahrain Aluminum have reported missile attacks, but it is uncertain whether production will be cut. Currently, the impact of the war on aluminum prices is focused on both supply and demand narratives. On the supply side: The Middle East is a major regional exporter of electrolytic aluminum, and the continuation of the war may hinder the import of alumina raw materials and the export of finished electrolytic aluminum, affecting about 8.2% of global aluminum output. As energy prices rise, there are expectations for electrolytic aluminum production cuts in Europe. On the demand side: The surge in oil prices has led to inflation expectations, forming a recession trading outlook, which is bearish for aluminum prices.

At this stage, aluminum prices are adjusting along with market risk aversion, waiting for opportunities to build long positions after the adjustment.

Alumina: The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed guidelines to strengthen management, optimize layout, and encourage mergers for alumina and other resource-intensive industries, maintaining a bullish outlook for alumina.

Casting Aluminum: Following the trend of Shanghai aluminum prices unilaterally.

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