Analysis: BTC long-term holders' profitability has plummeted to 3%, and market bottom signals have not yet been triggered.

CycleProphet · 2026-03-30T07:40:33+00:00

According to on-chain analyst MorenoDV_ analysis, the unrealized net profit of long-term BTC holders (NUPL) is approaching a critical turning point but has not yet triggered a market bottom signal. Since October 2025, LTH profitability has significantly declined, and the current NUPL is slightly above zero, not yet reaching the full liquidation zone of historical lows. Analysts recommend paying attention to signals such as NUPL falling below zero and a slowdown in price volatility to capture entry opportunities.

CycleProphet

2026-03-30 07:40:33

Abstract generation in progress

According to TechFlow news on March 30, on-chain analyst MorenoDV_ (@MorenoDV_) posted on CryptoQuant that the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of long-term holders (LTH) of BTC is approaching a critical turning point, but the market bottom signal has not yet been triggered.

Since the peak on October 6, 2025, LTH profitability has sharply compressed from 58% to 3% over 142 days, reflecting a significant deterioration in investor sentiment and holding structure. However, the LTH-NUPL is currently still slightly above zero and has not entered the comprehensive liquidation range necessary for historically forming a market bottom.

The analyst points out that true market bottoms in history have formed after LTH holdings have fully turned to losses, and the current environment is closer to the late-cycle pressure phase rather than complete liquidation. It is recommended to focus on signals where LTH-NUPL continues to fall below zero, while also accompanied by long-term compression in price and volatility, as this condition has historically aligned closely with asymmetric entry opportunities.

BTC1,82%

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