【Oil Price Trends】Macquarie: If the Iran war continues until June, oil prices could soar to a historic high of $200

The conflict in the Middle East, particularly in Iran, shows no signs of stopping, and international oil prices remain high. Macquarie estimates that if the war in Iran continues until June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices could reach a historic high of $200 per barrel, with a 40% probability of this scenario occurring.

Macquarie states that with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the prices of crude oil and refined products will surge, and prior to the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the average daily oil transportation volume through the strait was about 15 million barrels, with refined product transport at around 5 million barrels.

Macquarie: The probability of the Iran war ending by the end of March is 60%

“If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, oil prices would need to soar to a historically unprecedented level capable of destroying global oil demand. The timing of the strait’s reopening and the extent of damage to energy infrastructure will be key factors determining the long-term impact on commodities.”

However, Macquarie still believes that the conflict in Iran can be resolved in the short term, indicating a 60% likelihood that the war will end by the end of March.

International oil prices reached a historic peak of $147.5 per barrel in 2008.

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