Huatai Securities: Focus on Green Fuel Sector

MetaMuskRat · 2026-03-25T03:27:18+00:00

Huatai Securities research report believes that NDC will become a hard constraint for assessment, expects green certificate supply-demand reversal to drive price increases, the growth potential of green power operators is underestimated, environmental value reassessment will drive industry development, and recommends paying attention to green fuel sector.

MetaMuskRat

2026-03-25 03:27:18

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People’s Financial News, March 25 — Huatai Securities research report states that the market consensus believes NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) is a long-term concept, surplus green certificate supply makes prices difficult to rise, and green energy operators are only “quasi-debt” defensive assets. Huatai Securities believes: 1. From 2028 to 2030, the countdown to peak carbon emissions is only 2 to 4 years, and NDC may become a hard constraint for annual assessments; 2. Mechanism electricity transfer and mismatched validity periods lead to a supply shortage of actual deliverable new certificates. By February 2026, trading of new certificates accounted for 84%, and the supply-demand pattern has reversed; 3. The market has not priced in the “growth attributes” of green energy operators. The profitability of green certificates is becoming more apparent, which is expected to drive the valuation center of A/H shares of green energy companies upward. The revaluation of environmental value will unfold along three main lines, benefiting green energy operators and high-energy-consuming leading green energy direct connections, with a focus on the green fuel sector.

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