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A Multi-Asset Playbook for Geopolitical Shocks and Oil Supply Disruption
This article examines how geopolitical shocks and oil supply disruptions impact various asset classes, drawing comparisons between recent Middle East conflicts and the Russia-Ukraine war. It highlights that while most shocks cause short-term losses that fade, sustained oil disruption, like in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, can lead to prolonged damage across asset classes, especially for emerging markets and regions outside the U.S. The analysis suggests that traditional hedges like bonds have weakened, making gold and the U.S. dollar more critical for diversification during such events.