US Midterm Election Year: Can BTC Break the "Decline Then Rise" Pattern Curse?

As geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue to escalate, Bitcoin has repeatedly faced obstacles near the 74,000 USD level in recent times. However, another potential influencing factor is approaching: the US midterm elections.

Analysis suggests that although recent market attention has been occupied by Middle East tensions, according to historical patterns, US midterm election years similarly exert a non-negligible impact on Bitcoin's price trajectory.

XWIN Research, an analyst at the CryptoQuant platform, points out through in-depth analysis of historical data that Bitcoin tends to exhibit a relatively regular price pattern in midterm election years, characterized by a weak-to-strong cycle:

Reviewing the three midterm election years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin prices all experienced sharp declines, with drops exceeding 60%. However, within 12 months following the elections, Bitcoin prices rebounded strongly, with gains exceeding 50%.

This "decline then rise" price pattern is not coincidental—it is closely linked to changes in market environment as elections approach. As elections draw near, market uncertainty rises significantly, and investors, concerned about risks, see their risk appetite decline accordingly.

At this time, investors typically choose to reduce their positions to hedge against potential risks. This large-scale position reduction directly causes market liquidity contraction, which in turn puts enormous pressure on Bitcoin prices, resulting in declines.

However, this midterm election year coincides precisely with the bear market phase of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, a situation that makes it difficult to attribute Bitcoin price fluctuations solely to election impacts, with combined factors becoming increasingly complex.

Although the situation becomes more complex, it is undeniable that as macro-economic uncertainties intensify, combined with the impact of the US November midterm elections, Bitcoin will likely face downward price pressure in the short term.

According to historical patterns, following each midterm election, market rebounds typically last longer than the pre-election declines. From this perspective, BTC's price decline in an election year may actually provide long-term investors with a relatively favorable entry opportunity.

#比特币 # Midterm Elections