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Today’s market...
It’s okay, from yesterday to today...
Recently been adjusting kiyotaka, trying this out for a day today
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Figure 1 The demand zone below the order book imbalance band mentioned yesterday. Ultimately, there weren’t any major negative news, so the bears couldn’t break through below.
In the early surge to squeeze shorts, an imbalance band appeared on the buy side.. so it encountered resistance.
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Figure 2 Currently back at the neutral point of 65k, filling the imbalance gap created during the rapid rise.. The order book also shows a balanced range. So, it’s currently a 55/45 split...
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Figure 3 OI situation.. During the State of the Union address today, the short positions ultimately didn’t last; I went to sleep before he finished.. Couldn’t hold the position, so just reviewing the charts..
Today and yesterday’s OI performance are quite similar..
Both involve a decline, with bulls bottom-fishing and bears chasing shorts. Ultimately, a rebound driven by spot buying led to a balance between longs and shorts, with the rebound caused by falling OI...
Yesterday, shorts closed their positions, OI returned to normal, but spot continued selling, so the rebound ended and the price turned down.
So, after this extreme squeeze wave, OI quickly normalized today. Combined with the imbalance in the spot order book, that wave of rebound also ended there.
The difference is, yesterday spot continued selling afterward, causing the Asian session to decline further. Today, CVD in the Asian session is temporarily stable, so we’ll wait for the next direction.
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Figure 4 In terms of options, after the extreme skew of -30 yesterday, following this rapid squeeze, not only were the contracts forced short, but the options market was also squeezed.
Skew surged sharply, and the short covering of puts caused market makers to quickly buy spot or futures to hedge positions, leading to this wave of forced short covering in contracts and options...
Now, skew has returned to around -20.. The market’s demand for downside insurance continues. Just not as extreme as yesterday.
Currently, GEX near 65k has a huge positive gamma.. meaning, around this level, options market makers’ hedging will suppress volatility..
So, the current oscillation around 65k, with small fluctuations, is also a manifestation of this positive gamma effect at 65k...