If this happens, XRP could drop to $0.27: Technical Cycle Analysis

Technical analysis of the crypto asset XRP reveals a recurring pattern that has defined its cyclical movements for over a decade. According to the specialized analyst Steph Is Crypto, there is a critical indicator that determines when a significant trend change occurs: the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). This technical indicator has consistently served as an inflection point in XRP’s price history, marking the moment when the long-term trend reverses.

Cyclical Patterns of XRP and the Role of the 50-Week Moving Average

The 50-week SMA acts as a psychological and technical barrier on XRP charts. When the price manages to stay above this line, the trend remains bullish. However, when a breakdown below this level occurs, the moving average becomes an almost insurmountable resistance. Historical analysis shows that every time XRP has fallen below the 50-week SMA, recovery has been extremely difficult.

From 2015 to the present, this pattern has repeated multiple times. In 2015, XRP experienced a catastrophic 75.03% drop from its local high after breaking below the SMA. This was not an isolated event. The 2018 cycle saw an even more severe correction, with XRP falling 85.77% when it failed again to hold support at the moving average. The pattern manifested once more in 2022, when XRP declined 68.61% after losing this critical technical level.

Failed Recoveries: Historical Tests That Didn’t Work

The most notable feature of these cycles is that recoveries toward the 50-week SMA have repeatedly failed. Each attempt by XRP to retake this line has ended in rejection, turning the support indicator into insurmountable resistance. The chart shared by Steph Is Crypto clearly illustrates this sequence: after each downward break, multiple tests of the SMA occur that invariably fail, followed by deep corrections.

This behavior suggests that the 50-week SMA is not just an arbitrary number but a level that reflects a fundamental change in market sentiment. When investors see that XRP cannot recover above this level, market psychology shifts, and selling accelerates.

XRP’s Current Crossroads and Its Implications

XRP is currently in a delicate position. According to the latest data, the token is trading at $1.75, with a -3.89% change in the last 24 hours. This figure represents a decline from the levels reached in early January, when it approached the 50-week SMA again. However, as in previous cycles, XRP failed to maintain that level, and the price retreated.

The fact that this rejection occurs again is no coincidence. Following the historical pattern, XRP is once again at the breakout point where the most significant past breakages occurred. The proximity to the 50-week SMA, combined with the inability to recover, replicates the conditions that preceded the major drops of 2015, 2018, and 2022.

Future Scenarios: What Happens If XRP Continues Falling

If XRP fails to recover quickly above the 50-week SMA, the historical pattern suggests two target price scenarios based on the percentage declines observed in previous cycles. Historical corrections ranged between 68% and 85% from the current price.

Applying these percentages to the current level of $1.75, XRP could fall to an target range between $0.59 and $0.27. The level of $0.27 is particularly significant, as it represents a price XRP has not visited since early 2021. This is not a certainty prediction but rather an analysis of possible support levels derived from historical behavior.

The price action around the 50-week SMA will remain the decisive factor. If what happens in the coming weeks confirms a breakdown without recovery, the bearish scenario would strengthen considerably. Conversely, if XRP manages to recover above the SMA, the pattern would break, opening the possibility of a bullish continuation.

Steph Is Crypto’s analysis emphasizes that XRP cycles have proven to be predictable when monitoring this technical indicator. The consistency of the pattern over more than ten years of data suggests that when this configuration occurs again, it is prudent to pay attention to the projected levels and potential support zones.