Why current Bitcoin trends are fundamentally different from those in 2022

【Coinpurse】 Regarding the recent trend of Bitcoin, some analysts are comparing the current market with 2022, implying a bearish outlook. At first glance, the short-term price patterns do seem somewhat similar. However, if we extend the timeline, such a comparison becomes quite absurd.

The core reason lies in the completely reversed macroeconomic background. In 2022, the primary goal of capital was risk reduction, and Bitcoin was in a high position during a tightening cycle, being sold off. The current situation is entirely different—US liquidity index has not only broken through the short-term downtrend line but also the long-term one, and a new upward trend is unfolding.

From a technical perspective, between 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin formed an M-top pattern on the weekly chart. Such a top structure usually indicates a long-term resistance, which can drag the price down for a long time. Now, the weekly upward channel has already broken. From a probability standpoint, this looks more like a bear trap rather than a genuine reversal. Of course, the possibility of a bear market still exists, but the range between $80,850 and $62,000 has undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover. This process of digesting the supply actually leaves the bulls with a more favorable risk-reward ratio—the upside potential is clearly greater than the downside risk.

To truly restart a bear market, several conditions must occur simultaneously: a new inflation shock or a geopolitical crisis similar to 2022, a resumption of rate hikes by central banks or balance sheet reduction, and a decisive drop below $80,850. Until these conditions are met, claiming that a structural bear market is imminent is more speculation than analysis.

Most importantly, the change in investor structure is key. Today, early 2026, the biggest difference from 2022 is the shift from retail-led high-leverage speculation to institution-led long-term structural holding. The 2022 bear market was driven by retail panic selling and a series of leveraged liquidations, a typical crypto downturn. Now, Bitcoin has long entered an institutionalized era characterized by stable demand, locked supply, and volatility at institutional levels. This is a completely different game.