2026-01-18 01:09:11

Two months ago, $12, and now it has become over $104,000. A trader on Polymarket achieved nearly a 10,000,000% increase with a 16-win streak — this is definitely a legendary figure in prediction markets.

From $12 to over $100,000, what’s behind this? Pure luck and probability, or a deep understanding of the market and information? How improbable is it to get 16 consecutive correct predictions? Some say it’s an all-in strategy with extremely high risk preference, while others question whether such extreme returns can be replicated.

Prediction markets have remained hot over the past two years, attracting traders with forecasts on political events, technological updates, and market trends. But to maintain such a win rate, is it about information advantage, decision speed, or simply gambler’s luck? The market is watching, and the community is discussing — is this case a lighthouse or a bubble?

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GasGoblin

· 5h ago

16 consecutive wins from 12 dollars to 100,000? Nah, this guy definitely has some cheat code enabled. I don't believe probability theory can be this outrageous. This guy isn't a trader; he's a gambler. All-in strategies will eventually catch up with him. Honestly, I just want to laugh when I see stories like this. Someone always gets rich, but you've never heard about the times they lost.

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PuzzledScholar

· 5h ago

16 consecutive wins from 12 tokens to 100,000... How outrageous must the probability be? I really want to know how this guy did it. If it were just pure luck, I would have lost all my pants, there must be an information advantage. But honestly, this kind of extreme return can't be replicated; it's just a survivor bias story.

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LiquidityNinja

· 5h ago

Damn, 16 consecutive wins. How did this guy do it? Pure luck or is there really an information advantage? Bought in at 12 and turned it into 100,000, sounds unbelievable but that's how Polymarket works. Honestly, in probability theory, how lucky does that make him? Can't believe it unless you replicate it. This is a textbook case of gambler's mentality, maybe next time he'll lose it all back. Winning 16 times in a row, is he truly the chosen one? Or do they just not care about the principal, haha. Prediction markets are popular, but the returns are so high that even showing them to dad would get you scolded. All-in strategy sounds great, but when it comes to yourself, how could you possibly dare? Is this real? These numbers sound more like a story than an account.

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DAOdreamer

· 5h ago

16 consecutive wins and taking off immediately, this guy must be either the chosen one or putting on a spectacular show of us being cut for the greens, uh, being the one getting cut. Honestly, how absurd must this probability be? I can't calculate it, but I know it must be ridiculously unlikely. All-in sixteen times and all correct? I don't believe you, unless he really has some information channels we don't know about, otherwise this is a living casino legend that will be crushed by reality in the next second. Having played the prediction market for so long, the thing I fear most is seeing cases of "getting rich overnight," which easily gets people hooked.

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metaverse_hermit

· 5h ago

16 consecutive wins, directly taking off. This probability is really incredible. I wonder if there's a mole involved. I prefer not to have this guy around; otherwise, I might lose my composure. Basically, I just guessed right. Can I guess right again next time? Haha. Is going all-in really about luck or do I have some real skills? I bet on the former. This kind of sudden wealth case is the most dangerous. How much do people lose when they follow the trend and go all-in afterward? 16 hits in a row, probability experts would be crying. Predicting markets is this annoying, it easily inflates people's egos. Is the lighthouse a bubble? I think it's all just air. If I could replicate this move, I would go all-in on a house. Information advantage is bullshit; this is just pure luck show. Gambler's mentality, seeing these numbers makes me cautious. If I had this ability, I would already be a millionaire.

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ProbablyNothing

· 5h ago

16 consecutive wins? Man, how unlucky must the odds be? I bet this guy is either an insider or the next legend of liquidation.

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PrivacyMaximalist

· 5h ago

Whoa, 16 consecutive wins? How crazy is that probability, it feels like winning the lottery. Honestly, I don't really believe it can be replicated; it's mostly luck. Going all-in like that will eventually backfire, it's just a matter of time. If this guy really had an information advantage, he should be quietly making money; bragging about it in the community is a bit... Predicting the market is just gambling, packaged nicely as trading. From $12 to $100,000, is that really just luck or what? I think there must be a story behind it. These extreme profit cases look exciting, but don't use them as templates, everyone. It just feels like survivor bias; no one remembers those who got wrecked.

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