BITCOIN’S $106K BREAKOUT DELAYED: WHY "ULTRA-LONG" HODLERS ARE SPOILING THE PARTY

As of January 12, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself on the cusp of a major technical move, yet the final “green light” remains elusive. While the price has successfully reclaimed the critical 20-day EMA and maintained a bullish “cup-and-handle” structure, a specific group of market participants is capping the upside. On-chain data reveals that while short-term sellers have virtually disappeared down 95% in just four days “ultra-long” holders who have sat on their coins for over a year are aggressively distributing supply into every rally. Until this legacy selling pressure subsides, Bitcoin’s projected 12% breakout toward the $106,630 zone remains in a state of frustrating suspension. I. The Cup-and-Handle Setup: $92,400 as the Decisive Line The technical blueprint for Bitcoin is clear: it is currently carving out the “handle” portion of a massive cup-and-handle formation. This classic bullish pattern typically precedes a significant upward expansion. The price is currently oscillating near the $92,400 resistance level. A clean daily close above this mark would confirm the breakout and activate a measured move target of $106,630. Supporting this structure is the 20-day EMA, which Bitcoin reclaimed on January 10. Historically, a successful reclaim followed by consecutive green candles as we are seeing now has led to rallies of at least 7%, providing a strong foundation for the bulls. II. The 95% Collapse in Short-Term Selling: A Supply Vacuum? One of the most encouraging signs for a breakout is the near-total exhaustion of short-term selling pressure. The “Spent Coins Age Band” data for the 7-day to 30-day cohort shows that selling activity has plummeted from 24,800 BTC to just 1,328 BTC since January 8 a 95% decline. This indicates that recent buyers are not panicking or taking quick profits, but are instead holding out for higher prices. With the “weak hands” effectively flushed out, the path of least resistance would typically be upward, were it not for the massive supply being dumped by the market’s oldest participants. III. The Ultra-Long Holder Exit: 109,000 BTC in the Way The primary hurdle to the $106K target is the persistent distribution by “ultra-long” holders (those holding for significantly more than a year). On January 1, this group distributed a staggering 286,700 BTC. While this selling slowed to roughly 109,200 BTC by January 11, it remains high enough to absorb most of the current buying demand near the $92,400 resistance. This “old money” exit is creating a supply ceiling that has so far prevented a clean breakout. For the 12% rally to trigger, this cohort must either finish their distribution or be overwhelmed by a fresh wave of institutional or ETF-driven demand. IV. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Technical patterns like the “cup-and-handle” and indicators such as the 20-day EMA are probabilistic tools and do not guarantee future price action. The $106,630 target is a theoretical projection based on current chart structures. On-chain data regarding “ultra-long” holder distribution is subject to interpretation and may change rapidly. Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset; always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any significant investment decisions.

Do you think the “ultra-long” holders are right to cash out now, or are they about to miss the run to $106K?