Bitcoin at the $100K level: When whales withdraw and retail investors buy the dip

After chaotic weeks, the crypto market is shifting direction. Investor sentiment has changed significantly, but the path to $100K still contains many psychological traps.

Recovery Signs: Sentiment Indicators Return

The crypto market is currently showing positive signals. The Fear & Greed Index has risen from 15 to 25 over two weeks, indicating a shift in psychological factors. Bitcoin is now trading at $92.14K with a 1.42% increase in 24 hours.

On trading forums, the atmosphere is completely different. Traders who previously quietly monitored profits have started sharing optimistic forecasts again. The crypto community is becoming lively again — not always the case after sell-offs.

Altcoins are also benefiting from the overall optimism. Ethereum is trying to reclaim the $5,000 mark, while Solana continues to serve as the “bright star” of this cycle. Even smaller tokens are seeing renewed investor interest.

Liquidity Battle: Key Resistance Levels

Beneath the surface of optimism lies a complex strategic game. Analysts believe Bitcoin needs to break through the $93,000-$94,000 zone to pave the way to $100K. These are not arbitrary numbers — they represent major order concentrations.

Meanwhile, another support zone is forming around $85,000-$86,000. If Bitcoin holds this level, testing higher levels becomes feasible. However, if it fails, selling pressure could re-emerge.

Traders are waiting for a clear signal. Currently, the market remains balanced — one side hopes for a breakout, while the other remains cautious based on previous price washouts.

Shark Meme Analysis: When the Big Players Retreat

One of the most interesting recent market behaviors is the actions of sharks — wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC. From October to mid-November, these whales significantly reduced their positions, creating a humorous “shark meme” picture: small investors are boldly bottom-fishing, while large players are retreating.

This is clearly reflected in blockchain data. The number of active addresses decreased from 964,000 to 729,000 weekly. New addresses per week also dropped from 3.37 million to 2.21 million. These figures indicate a weakening of Bitcoin network activity over the past weeks.

What does this imbalance mean? It could imply that the current recovery is mainly driven by retail investors and market sentiment, rather than institutional accumulation. Until the big sharks start accumulating again, any rally could be fragile.

Recent Correction: A Lesson from Fear

Six weeks ago, Bitcoin faced a storm. A 36% drop in six weeks — the deepest and steepest correction in this cycle. It was sudden, and BTC holders felt its weight.

But this correction also created opportunities. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio remains in a zone indicating many investors are at a loss. This could serve as a supply source for future price recovery.

The Fear & Greed index dropped to 10 in mid-November — an extreme fear level. Historically, such moments often signal a potential bottom. Currently at 25, it shows a gradual return to calm, but not yet excessive optimism.

Looking to December and Future Possibilities

History shows December is often a favorable month for Bitcoin, with an average increase of 4.75% over the past ten years. Many investors expect a year-end recovery to occur.

However, Bitcoin ETF holders, after weeks of worry, are now seeing their positions turn green again. This is an important psychological signal.

But caution should still be maintained. The market remains weak in terms of on-chain activity. Until large sharks regain confidence and on-chain indicators improve, any rally could be temporary. At this moment, with 53.27% of investor sentiment leaning bullish and 46.73% bearish, the market remains delicately balanced.

Crypto winter is not over, but the first rays of sunshine have appeared. Will they last, or are they just a prelude to another storm — that still depends on whether Bitcoin can hold key liquidity zones.