Precious metals on fire: Palladium prices break three-year highs while gold and silver rewrite the spot price history

The end of 2025 brought a true explosion in the precious metals market, with a collective rally involving all the major commodities in the sector. It is not a coincidence, but the convergence of multiple forces that are reshaping the entire landscape of defensive investments.

Palladium leads the rebound: palladium prices hit three-year highs

What surprises everyone is palladium, which on Tuesday surged by 5.7%, reaching $1859.38, and continued Wednesday morning with a further increase of 1.74%, settling at $1897.73 per ounce. Palladium prices show a phenomenal upward push over the time frame: +10% since the start of the week, +107% in December, and since the beginning of the year, numbers that reflect an increasingly robust industrial demand, especially from the automotive and electronics sectors that heavily depend on this metal.

The dynamics of palladium prices are not isolated. Platinum has followed a similarly spectacular path: a 7.5% rise on Tuesday that pushed the price to $2283, with the all-time high touched at $2334 on Wednesday morning. In the month, platinum is up +39%, while since the start of the year, the total gain exceeds 155%.

Silver and gold: two metals telling the same story of fear

While palladium surprises with industrial momentum, silver and gold tell a different story: that of seeking certainty in an increasingly uncertain world. Spot silver broke the psychological threshold of $70, reaching a historic high of $71.55 on Tuesday and continuing Wednesday at $71.83 per ounce, marking a 27% monthly increase and an impressive 150% annual gain.

Meanwhile, the gold price reached $4509.90 per ounce on Wednesday morning, surpassing the previous record of $4500. Since the beginning of the year, the yellow metal has appreciated by 72%, remaining the absolute benchmark of risk aversion. Spot gold, like spot silver, continues to benefit from the chronic scarcity condition that characterizes the market.

According to analysts at Zaner Metals, the next target for silver could be $75, although year-end profit-taking poses a real risk of correction in the short term.

The weakened dollar: the tailwind for precious metals

What actually moves the spot prices of gold, silver, and precious metals in general is the structural weakness of the dollar. On Tuesday, the dollar index fell by 0.36%, marking the second consecutive decline and hitting an intraday low of 97.85, the lowest level since October 3. The projection for the month suggests an 1.4% decline, the largest since August, while on an annualized basis, a 9.6% drop is estimated, the widest since 2017.

This deterioration is not accidental. Despite the US GDP in the third quarter growing at an annualized rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations, the market remains focused on a different element: the likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to projections from the London Stock Exchange Group, an 87% probability is assigned to a scenario with no rate reductions at the end-January meeting, but futures markets indicate that the next cut could materialize in June 2026, with two 25 basis point reductions expected during the year.

The US consumer confidence index for December further worsened the picture: 89.1 versus expectations of 91.0, down by 3.8 points. Erik Bregar of Silver Gold Bull predicts that in the first quarter of next year, the dollar will weaken further, as signs of weakness in the labor market will force the Federal Reserve to make more generous concessions on monetary policies.

Geopolitics adds fuel to the fire

Alongside economic factors, geopolitical events have further fueled the search for safe-haven assets. The United States announced maximum sanctions against Venezuela, with President Trump stating the intention to retain seized ships and maintain control of oil. At the same time, according to the Wall Street Journal, Washington has sent numerous special and transport aircraft to the Caribbean, expanding options for potential military actions.

In Ukraine, the situation remains critical: Russian missiles and drones have caused at least three deaths, including a child, triggering large-scale blackouts that forced Poland to scramble its fighters. Ukrainian troops have retreated from Sievierodonetsk, while Russian forces threaten several strategic cities. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov announced that talks are ongoing between Russian and American diplomats, but key issues remain unresolved.

The future outlook: still room for growth

The overall rally in precious metals represents the intersection of three currents: recovering industrial demand (which supports platinum and palladium), geopolitical risk aversion (which fuels gold and silver), and the prospect of lower rates (which weakens the dollar and makes metals quoted in US currency more attractive to international buyers).

On Wednesday, Christmas Eve, markets in major Western countries will close early or entirely, with reduced liquidity that could generate additional volatility. However, looking beyond the holidays, the environment remains favorable for precious metals. The persistent global risk aversion, combined with the prospect of a Federal Reserve inclined toward future rate cuts, suggests that appreciation margins may still not be exhausted. Investors will need to closely monitor the actions of the US central bank and the evolution of the international geopolitical landscape to seize upcoming market opportunities.

At 08:04 (UTC+8) on Wednesday, the spot gold price was at $4510.34 per ounce, confirming the ongoing upward momentum.