A recent macroeconomic forecast report indicates that the global economy is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2026, slightly above the market consensus of 2.5%. The report provides a detailed analysis of the economic outlooks for the United States, China, and the Eurozone, which are worth noting.

In the United States, GDP growth is projected to reach 2.6%. The main supporting factors include approximately $100 billion in tax cuts and refunds, a relatively accommodative financial environment, and a gradual easing of tariff burdens. These favorable conditions are expected to concentrate their impact in the first half of 2026, driving strong economic performance. However, it is important to note that a slowdown in immigration inflows will lead to a decrease in labor force growth, and the US employment growth rate may fall significantly below pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, the boost from AI on employment and productivity is currently mainly limited to the tech sector, and it will take a few more years for it to have a significant impact on the overall economy.

China's economy is expected to grow by 4.8%. Its characteristics include a strong manufacturing sector but relatively weak domestic demand. The export sector remains competitive, but continued weakness in the real estate market is a drag, expected to reduce economic growth by 1.5 percentage points. The robust manufacturing industry combined with subdued domestic demand continues to drive China's trade surplus, exerting ongoing influence on global trade relations.

The Eurozone, under multiple pressures such as an aging population, high regulatory costs, and elevated energy prices, still demonstrates resilience, with an expected growth of 1.3% in 2026. Germany is anticipated to receive fiscal support, with a growth rate of 1.1%; Southern European countries, represented by Spain, driven by consumer spending growth and economic restructuring, are expected to achieve a growth rate of 2.4%.

Regarding inflation, core inflation rates in major developed economies are expected to fall back into the central bank target range by 2026. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points in 2026, with the policy rate approaching 3-3.25%.

Overall, the global economy in 2026 is expected to maintain growth amid policy support and structural adjustments, but the recovery pace across regions will remain uneven. Changes in the labor market, evolving trade relations, and domestic structural reforms will continue to influence the medium- and long-term economic outlook.