Trump pressures Federal Reserve, triggers risk aversion wave; Bitcoin defies the trend and rises, becoming a new "safe haven"

On Monday afternoon, global financial market sentiment rapidly weakened. The ongoing conflict between U.S. President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell has escalated, raising concerns among investors about political interference in the independence of the central bank. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin defied the trend, rising approximately 1% during the session to around $92,000, once again being viewed by the market as a hedge against political and monetary policy uncertainties. Meanwhile, Nasdaq futures declined 0.8%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, and gold hit a new high of $4,600 per ounce, with traditional safe-haven assets and cryptocurrencies strengthening simultaneously.

Political Conflict Escalates, Threatening Federal Reserve Independence

In a recent weekend statement, Powell revealed that the Trump administration has threatened to file criminal charges related to the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. Powell believes these allegations are clearly politically motivated, aimed at pressuring the Fed to further cut interest rates.

Since taking office in 2025, Trump has publicly criticized the Fed’s monetary policy multiple times, accusing Powell of not being aggressive enough in cutting rates. According to the latest reports, Trump has repeatedly called for the benchmark interest rate to be lowered to 1% or even lower. Although the Fed previously lowered rates to 3.5%, the market generally expects that the policy rate will remain stable for at least the coming months.

Diverging Market Reactions, Bitcoin Decouples from Tech Stocks

It is noteworthy that Bitcoin’s recent movement has significantly decoupled from tech stocks. Usually, Bitcoin shows strong correlation with the Nasdaq index, but in the current environment, the market is more inclined to see it as a tool to hedge against political and monetary policy uncertainties. This shift reflects that some funds are seeking “non-sovereign, anti-establishment” stores of value.

Multiple manifestations of risk aversion

• Traditional safe-haven assets strengthen: gold hits record high, US dollar remains high despite some retreat
• Risk assets under pressure: stock index futures decline, reflecting investor concerns about economic outlook
• Bitcoin regains recognition: shifting from a risk asset to a safe-haven role

Deep Background: Intersection of Political Risks and Monetary Policy

According to the latest reports, investors do not believe Powell will resign early before his term ends, but ongoing attacks on the Fed’s independence have posed potential pressures on market confidence and dollar stability. Historically, cases of currency crises triggered by political interference in central banks remain important warnings.

In this context, Bitcoin’s rise carries special significance. Reports indicate that the U.S. government may establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve, further solidifying Bitcoin’s position as “digital gold.” Meanwhile, the rising stock prices of companies like MicroStrategy, which hold Bitcoin, suggest increasing institutional confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Subtle Changes in Market Structure

Currently, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $116.857 billion. Despite recent outflows, the scale remains substantial, indicating ongoing institutional participation. This involvement is reflected not only in price movements but also in a redefinition of Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Future Outlook: Uncertainty and Opportunities Coexist

Amid escalating conflicts between Trump and Powell, the stability of the dollar and volatility in financial markets face rising risks. This may continue to support the performance of safe-haven assets like Bitcoin.

Latest reports confirm that the White House has approved Trump’s support for exempting small Bitcoin transactions from capital gains tax, further indicating increased policy recognition of Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin’s core advantage remains its long-term value as a scarce sovereign asset, rather than a short-term trading tool.

Key points to watch include:

• How will the political conflict between Trump and the Fed develop?
• Will the Fed change its policy stance under political pressure?
• The long-term trend of the US dollar index
• Can Bitcoin break through the $95,000 resistance level?

Summary

The current market landscape reflects a significant shift: Bitcoin is gradually transitioning from a pure risk asset to a hedge against political and monetary policy risks. Although the escalation of Trump and Powell’s conflict has sparked market concerns, it also offers Bitcoin new positioning opportunities.

Gold hitting a record high, the dollar index retreating, and stock index futures declining all point to a fact: global investors are reallocating assets, seeking tools to hedge political risks. In this process, Bitcoin’s 1% rebound, while modest, signals a noteworthy change in market sentiment.

The key going forward is to observe whether this risk-averse sentiment can persist and whether Bitcoin can maintain its new role amid ongoing political uncertainties.