The risk signal behind the first floating loss of a whale with a 97% success rate, shorting 50 BTC with 40x leverage

The well-known whale “Victory War God” recently made a transaction that has attracted attention. This on-chain player, known for an extremely high success rate, is shorting nearly 50 BTC with 40x leverage, with an average entry price of $92,081.6. Currently, they are experiencing an unrealized loss of $6,500. Interestingly, this appears to be the first time this address has a floating loss, which may reflect certain market signals.

A Special Whale Profile

The address “Victory War God” has unusual trading records. According to on-chain monitoring data, this address has completed a total of 152 trades, with 148 closed profitably and only 4 recording losses. What does this imply?

This success rate is rare among on-chain whales. Having 148 profitable trades indicates that this address’s judgment and risk management have been validated by the market.

Risk Analysis of the Current Short Position

But this time, “Victory War God” faces a different situation.

The Steepness of Leverage Risk

40x leverage is a quite aggressive choice. This means that a 2.5% fluctuation in BTC price could trigger liquidation. Considering BTC’s volatility around $92,000, this leverage level is already in a high-risk zone. Currently, the unrealized loss of $6,500 corresponds to a drop from the entry price of $92,081.6 to the current $92,064.93, a decrease of only 0.018%. Yet, this tiny price change has already resulted in a perceptible loss under 40x leverage.

The Subtlety of Price Environment

According to the latest data, BTC’s current price of $92,064.93 is roughly equal to the entry price of $92,081.6, but overall:

• 24-hour increase of 1.64%
• 7-day decrease of 0.98%
• 30-day increase of 1.90%

This indicates that BTC has short-term upward momentum. In such an environment, shorting requires judgment on whether this rally will reverse.

Why Now?

A reasonable hypothesis is that “Victory War God” might believe that BTC has already gained enough short-term upside and faces a risk of a pullback. Historically, this address’s judgment has been reliable. However, the choice of 40x leverage this time also suggests that the whale is quite confident in this short position.

Key Points for Follow-up Observation

The outcome of this trade warrants close attention:

• If BTC continues to rise and breaks above $92,200, the 40x short position could face rapidly increasing losses.
• If BTC pulls back below $91,900, this trade could quickly turn profitable.
• The liquidation price will determine the whale’s risk threshold.

Summary

This transaction by “Victory War God” presents two opposing signals: on one hand, a 97% success rate indicates that this address’s judgment is trustworthy; on the other hand, shorting with 40x leverage in an environment where BTC has strong upward momentum inherently carries significant risk. It may reflect the whale’s strong expectation of a short-term correction in BTC, but it also reminds us that even the most successful on-chain players, when using high leverage, must bear corresponding risks. For ordinary traders, this case serves more as a risk education—high success rate does not guarantee profits every time, and high leverage is always a double-edged sword.