All-In Podcast 2026 預測：ChatGPT 市佔被超越、SpaceX 不會尋求 IPO？

The well-known Silicon Valley program “All-In Podcast” recently released its “2026 Predictions” content. Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks, the crypto AI czar who has relocated to Texas, in the program, from California wealth tax referendum, AI and corporate prosperity, to geopolitics and asset allocation, intensively make key bets on 2026.

Among these, the most heated topic focuses on the wealth tax initiative possibly promoted by California, viewing this policy battle as a long-running drama of American politics and capital flow in 2026: from whether enough signatures can be collected, whether it can enter the ballot, to the November vote and subsequent legal battles, all may escalate.

All In Podcast discusses California Wealth Tax: Risks Sufficient to Drive Capital Away

Background: California proposes a one-time approximately 5% wealth tax on residents with net assets over $1 billion, with a retroactive clause, allowing the wealthy to be taxed even if they move away, triggering strong tax uncertainty. Many Silicon Valley and crypto billionaires choose to relocate before the bill passes to avoid the huge one-time tax bill and the potential expansion of the wealth tax, leading to discussions about a wealthy exodus from California.

The program dissects the California wealth tax issue in two parts: first, whether it can enter the ballot; second, if it does, whether it will pass. Friedberg and Chamath both lean towards “not necessarily making it onto the ballot,” but also admit that once it enters, markets and entrepreneurs may engage in risk-averse relocations. The program humorously states that California is a Democratic Party political matter, not Republican, so they have no internal bias.

Is the US Economy a Trump Boom? GDP Growth Forecasts Range from 4.6% to 6%

Sacks defines 2026 as a “Trump boom,” viewing falling inflation, declining oil prices, lower mortgage costs, and possible rate cuts as catalysts for political and market confidence. During the program, the verbal bets on GDP for 2026 range from 4.6% (Friedberg) to 5%–6% (Sacks, Chamath).

Will Mamdani Moment Be the Biggest Political Winner in 2026?

When discussing who will be the biggest political winner in 2026, the answer is not Trump. Jason says he hesitates between J.D. Vance and Mamdani moment.

The author adds: Mamdani moment is a popular label in US politics/media circles in recent months, usually referring to the rise of Zohran Mamdani in New York City, symbolizing the expansion of democratic socialist forces, and seen by some commentators as a key turning point for the Democratic Party shifting leftward, mobilizing voters with a stronger focus on economic equality and public services.

He believes J.D. Vance is a competent co-pilot of the Trump administration, defending Trump, not stealing the spotlight, with rising poll and Polymarket support. He is most popular at Turning Point USA; also an OG of America First.

But Jason ultimately believes Mamdani moment will be the biggest political winner in 2026. His advantage is that he is only 34 years old, while Ro Khanna is 49 and also turning socialist; he thinks the easiest way for Democrats to win in 2026 is to fully embrace socialism.

During the conversation, Jason feels Trump has already forgotten American workers; his economic support is behind with 58% disapproval; inflation remains close to 3%; he also wants to increase military spending by 50%, but the public cares more about healthcare. He points out that Trump has become a thorough new conservative (neocon): this year, he bombed seven countries and threatened to take over Colombia and Greenland. And who knows if that is just Trump’s bluster or real.

Friedberg firmly states: Democratic socialist factions (DSA) will reshape the Republican Party like MAGA, further dominating Democratic Party lines.

2026 Biggest Political Loser: Moderate Democrats and the Reshaping of Political Competition

Sacks lists “moderate Democrats / Democratic centrists” as the biggest losers, reasoning that the number of House competitive districts is decreasing, and the main threats in primaries increasingly come from the left, forcing moderates to shift leftward.

2026 Biggest Business Winner: Polymarket and Prediction Markets as News Gateways

Friedberg lists Polymarket as one of the most likely companies to explode in 2026, arguing that: prediction markets are not just trading platforms but are becoming “real-time event information aggregation and narrative entry points,” potentially integrated into more exchanges, brokerages, or platforms. On the other hand, he believes Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) collaborating on chip stacking will go deeper, with results exceeding Western expectations.

(Dow Jones partners with Polymarket, introducing prediction market data into media outlets like The Wall Street Journal)

Meanwhile, Chamath is optimistic about Copper as a business winner, citing that data centers, chips, military-industrial complex, and infrastructure all heavily depend on conductive materials, and global supply may struggle to meet demand in the medium to long term. Under current trends, by 2040, global supply will be in sharp shortage.

David Sacks believes 2026 will be a big IPO year, with new market capitalization possibly reaching the trillions. Previously, concerns about declining numbers of listed companies and privatizations are expected to reverse in 2026.

Jason bets on Amazon: replacing human labor with robots, greatly improving delivery efficiency. He argues Amazon could become the first company where robots contribute more to the bottom line than humans.

2026 Biggest Business Loser: SaaS Licensing

David Sacks jokes that he is the biggest business loser because he entered the Trump administration to serve the country and had to divest holdings to remain neutral.

Friedberg predicts that state governments will face real financing troubles this year due to various waste, fraud, and abuse scandals. Their response will not be to cut waste but to maintain such behaviors. He also foresees another potential crisis point in unrecognized pension liabilities.

Chamath points to large enterprise software ecosystems: he believes SaaS maintenance and migration, the two most profitable revenue pools, will be significantly compressed by AI automation tools, making enterprise clients more flexible but reducing incremental revenue for providers.

Jason thinks young white-collar workers in the US will be the biggest business losers because entry-level jobs are becoming harder to find; companies prefer to automate with AI rather than train Gen Z graduates. Although they still recruit entry-level engineers, the numbers are much fewer than before. On the other hand, during the pandemic, many schools relaxed standards, leading to declining student quality, and the industry is less willing to train newcomers.

2026 Best Asset Predictions: Prediction Markets, Precious Metals

For the best assets, Friedberg again bets on Polymarket; Chamath favors a basket of key metals; Sacks leans toward a super cycle in tech stocks. Jason includes trading platforms (like brokerages, betting exchanges) with cash to bet on as beneficiaries.

AI czar David Sacks points out: California luxury homes will be the worst assets in 2026

David Sacks predicts that high-end residential/luxury real estate in California will be the worst asset in 2026, as wealth tax shadows and high transaction taxes will reduce liquidity. Chamath is bearish on traditional hydrocarbon energy and expects oil prices to trend lower. Friedberg suggests 2026 will be a stress test year for Netflix or traditional media stocks. Jason points to the long-term devaluation risk of the US dollar.

2026 Most Anticipated Trend: LLM Mergers of $50 Billion or More

Chamath believes that under the full upgrade of geopolitics, regulation, and cross-border review, traditional large M&A will become more difficult, and markets will more often adopt structures like licensing and talent transfer. The author adds: look at Meta’s acquisition of Chinese AI startup Manus, which is under Chinese government review, and NVIDIA’s acquisition of Groq to avoid monopoly risks.

(Meta’s acquisition of Chinese AI startup Manus sparks controversy: Beijing suspected of export control review, possibly becoming a new frontier in geopolitical tech battles)

However, Jason believes that in 2026, super-large mergers worth $50 billion or more will occur. Possibly one of the tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon) will buy one of xAI, Perplexity, or Anthropic. Most may want to go public themselves, but Jason thinks there might be an offer too good to refuse.

(NVIDIA’s largest acquisition ever: investing $64 billion to acquire Groq technology and the father of Google TPU)

Sacks bets on a surge in coding assistants/tools, believing their popularity will resemble the rise of chatbots at the end of 2022 (The author infers this refers to Claude Code).

2026 Most Counterintuitive Belief: ChatGPT Leader Will Be Surpassed

Jason believes the most counterintuitive belief for 2026 is that ChatGPT’s dominance will be overtaken, with data hinting at this. Friedberg bets on possible dramatic changes in Iran’s political landscape and proposes an counterintuitive framework: after Iran’s power structure shifts, regional competition in the Middle East may become more complex, and conflicts may not revolve around Israel/Iran but shift to a rebalancing of power among Gulf countries.

Chamath offers two bolder points: SpaceX may not IPO and could somehow reverse merge with Tesla; and central banks might realize the limitations of gold and Bitcoin, seeking a new encrypted asset form that is “controllable, private, and quantum-resistant.”

This article “All-In Podcast 2026 Predictions: ChatGPT’s Market Share Surpassed, SpaceX Won’t Seek IPO?” first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.