The day before yesterday, I talked with a few veteran traders about ZEC's market situation. I vented: "This coin gave me four exit opportunities at four times the cost price, but I just couldn't seize them." A friend asked me back: "You're not losing in the market, you're just losing in signal recognition." That comment hit me right in the heart.
Thinking about it, that's indeed the case. Many people in the trading circle always shout "no opportunities," but the truth is often harsh—opportunities are right in front of you, but you're blind to them; or you see them, but you don't dare to act. Take my recent ZEC trades as a case study.
I enlarged the minute K-line chart and looked again, only to realize that all four rebounds were traps. The first? RSI surged above 70 into the overbought zone, but the volume was only half of the previous rally, clearly showing the bulls had no strength left. The second? It didn't even touch the previous small high point—typical weak rebound. The third and fourth were even more severe, with MACD divergence—price kept rising, but the MACD line was heading down—that's the market throwing you a lifeline.
At that moment, I was entirely focused on "the coin will turn around," and didn't pay attention to these signals. To put it bluntly, my professional skills are still not mature enough.
Later, I summarized a judgment formula, especially suitable for ranging markets: **Effective Opportunity = Price Breakthrough + Volume Match + Multi-Indicator Resonance**.
How to use it? First, watch the price—can it break through key resistance levels or retest key support levels? Then look at volume—an increase of more than 50% over the average of the past five days during an upward move, and shrinking volume during a decline are normal corrections. Finally, check the indicators—at least two indicators should give signals simultaneously, such as RSI combined with MACD or Bollinger Bands, to confirm that this is a real opportunity, not a market trap.
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The day before yesterday, I talked with a few veteran traders about ZEC's market situation. I vented: "This coin gave me four exit opportunities at four times the cost price, but I just couldn't seize them." A friend asked me back: "You're not losing in the market, you're just losing in signal recognition." That comment hit me right in the heart.
Thinking about it, that's indeed the case. Many people in the trading circle always shout "no opportunities," but the truth is often harsh—opportunities are right in front of you, but you're blind to them; or you see them, but you don't dare to act. Take my recent ZEC trades as a case study.
I enlarged the minute K-line chart and looked again, only to realize that all four rebounds were traps. The first? RSI surged above 70 into the overbought zone, but the volume was only half of the previous rally, clearly showing the bulls had no strength left. The second? It didn't even touch the previous small high point—typical weak rebound. The third and fourth were even more severe, with MACD divergence—price kept rising, but the MACD line was heading down—that's the market throwing you a lifeline.
At that moment, I was entirely focused on "the coin will turn around," and didn't pay attention to these signals. To put it bluntly, my professional skills are still not mature enough.
Later, I summarized a judgment formula, especially suitable for ranging markets: **Effective Opportunity = Price Breakthrough + Volume Match + Multi-Indicator Resonance**.
How to use it? First, watch the price—can it break through key resistance levels or retest key support levels? Then look at volume—an increase of more than 50% over the average of the past five days during an upward move, and shrinking volume during a decline are normal corrections. Finally, check the indicators—at least two indicators should give signals simultaneously, such as RSI combined with MACD or Bollinger Bands, to confirm that this is a real opportunity, not a market trap.