2026-01-09 03:01:24

#美国贸易赤字状况 $BTC vs Traditional Safe-Haven Assets: Lessons from 2025

The data for 2025 is quite straightforward:
- Gold increased by 71%
- Silver increased by 159%
- Bitcoin decreased by 6%

When geopolitical tensions heat up and stagflation casts its shadow, institutional investors still choose the centuries-old consensus—real precious metals. In comparison, the 15-year-old story of "digital gold" seems a bit flimsy.

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What does this imply?

Rather than Bitcoin failing, it is undergoing an identity transformation:

**From Anti-Fragile Asset → High Beta Risk Asset**

This is a necessary stage in asset growth. Let’s review the past:

In the early years, $BTC was a high-volatility, high-return, low-correlation portfolio—sounds like a myth. But as institutional investors entered in large numbers, liquidity increased, and its correlation with macroeconomics grew tighter, cyclical corrections became the norm. The future? It might resemble gold more—opportunities during certain windows, but also days of flatness or even losses.

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A few thoughts for investors

Adjust your expectations: the idea that "Bitcoin only goes up and never down" needs to be revised.

View $BTC within a broader framework—interest rate environment, dollar strength, market risk appetite—these are the decisive factors. The halving cycle still matters, but its influence is waning.

If liquidity shifts to easing in 2026, $BTC could rebound. But the reason won’t be some "crypto independent bull market," but rather a "risk assets rallying together"—the two sound similar but are logically very different.

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Market structure will change past patterns. The -6% in 2025 is not Bitcoin’s decline, but a painful transition as it evolves from a faith-based asset into a mainstream asset.

BTC-0,61%

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UnluckyLemur

· 01-09 03:31

Institutions are sleeping soundly on their gold, while we are still dreaming of trading coins. --- In simple terms, BTC has gone from a wild child to a well-behaved worker. --- The data is right here: gold has increased by 159%, while Bitcoin has fallen by 6%... the gap is quite stark. --- Wait, so our 15-year story has been beaten by a 5,000-year-old antique? --- We need to adjust our mindset and stop dreaming of a myth where prices only go up and never down. --- Instead of waiting for the halving, it's better to wait for the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy—these are two different things. --- Transforming from anti-fragile to high beta sounds like assets are aging. --- Institutions choosing gold says everything; they are the real risk-averse players. --- Liquidity is the real big daddy, much more reliable than the halving cycle. --- The hope for a turnaround in 2026 is all pinned on easing measures—it's a bit uncertain. --- The stability of gold versus the crash of BTC is a multiple-choice question, everyone.

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FloorSweeper

· 01-09 03:29

The story of digital gold really can't be told anymore; institutions still believe in the gold narrative. Oh wait, so how should we handle our positions? It seems this time we really have to tie it to macro factors; the halving is no longer the magic key. Honestly, I just want to know what will happen after liquidity loosens in 2026. According to his logic, BTC will just become an ordinary risk asset, so what's the point of its uniqueness? Silver's 159% increase is truly incredible; none of us managed to get in. From antifragile to high beta, how long will this pain last? Damn, I have to accept days of losses again; should I cut losses at this breakout? So, ultimately, Bitcoin has officially entered the mainstream, and the price to pay is no excess returns? I just want to ask, wouldn't it be better to stick with gold?

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GateUser-40edb63b

· 01-09 03:20

Gold and silver have doubled, but BTC still dropped 6%... This is the reality. Institutions still trust old-timers rather than digital stories. Remembered it now, BTC has long ceased to be a niche anti-fragile asset. Now it's a high-beta risk asset, dancing with the S&P. Wait, does this mean the magic of the halving is also fading? Then we need to re-examine this cycle theory. BTC only has a chance when liquidity loosens, but don't expect any independent bull market. It's just a collective dance of risk assets. Hmm... The transition from a faith asset to a mainstream asset is indeed painful. We need to prepare ourselves psychologically.

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GasWaster

· 01-09 03:19

Silver increased by 159%, I didn't get in then. Now I see this data, it's outrageous. --- So BTC has been tamed, from a wild kid to a working person. --- Gold is the real boss. Now the truth is out. --- Wait, so we've been fooled by "digital gold" for 15 years? --- Institutional entry has actually turned coins into high-beta hot potatoes, ironic. --- In 2026, with loose liquidity, I'll go all in again. For now, I'll lie flat and observe. --- Interest rates are the real boss. The halving cycle is already outdated, right? --- -6%, forget it. The real blow is that Bitcoin is no longer special. --- The difference between a unified rebound of risk assets and an independent crypto bull market is indeed significant, but for me, both are losing money.

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