Today’s non-farm payroll data release has shifted market focus to three core indicators: new employment numbers, unemployment rate levels, and year-over-year wage growth. Based on last month’s data, the unemployment rate remained at 4.6%, and this month’s market expectation is approximately 55,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate expected to fluctuate between 4.6% and 4.7%.

This set of data directly impacts the probability of a rate cut in January. If the unemployment rate surpasses 4.7% or new employment falls far below expectations, the likelihood of a rate cut will significantly increase; conversely, if new jobs exceed expectations and the unemployment rate declines, the enthusiasm for a rate cut will cool down, making the current probability more likely to remain unchanged.

Based on the combined ADP non-farm report and current market sentiment, this data is most likely to follow a neutral path. If new employment falls between 50,000 and 65,000, and the unemployment rate stays within 4.4%-4.6%, the market is unlikely to experience large fluctuations, and the expectation of a rate cut will not be suddenly revised. However, caution should be taken regarding unexpected shocks caused by data revisions.

Bitcoin has already dropped from 94,600 to 89,200 this week, and the price movements before the data release are basically complete. The upcoming volatility should not be too intense. There is an old rule worth noting — the higher the call for a rate cut, the more likely the market is to move in the opposite direction.

Specific trading ideas:

**Bitcoin**: Short directly in the 91,500-92,000 range, targeting 89,600-87,800. Once reached, reverse to go long at the bottom.

**Ethereum**: Follow the same rhythm, with 3,160 as a key resistance level. Execute a short position accordingly.

**Gold**: Continue short in the 4,480 range, operating within the oscillation box logic.

A rebound is an opportunity to short; this idea remains unchanged. Wishing you smooth trading today.