2026-01-09 02:20:29

#MSCI未排除数字资产财库企业纳入范围 Silver remains tightly range-bound during the day, with tonight's non-farm payroll data being the key to reversing the trend.

In recent days, silver has faced a tug-of-war between several forces. On one side, domestic regulatory policy adjustments (raising margin requirements, restricting intraday opening positions) combined with rebalancing of commodity index weights have created technical selling pressure, dampening short-term speculative enthusiasm. On the other side, expectations of Fed rate cuts, the supply gap in silver itself, and the rigid demand from the new energy industry are supporting the price at a fundamental level.

Looking at today's trading rhythm, most of the day is likely to be consolidative due to a lack of sufficient catalysts. The real turning point will come in the evening—once the non-farm payroll data is released. If the data far exceeds expectations, the dollar will strengthen, putting pressure on silver; if the data falls short, risk aversion will increase, and there will be an opportunity for silver prices to break upward.

Technical support levels are quite clear. The 74-dollar line is an upward trendline starting from the November 21 low, which also closely aligns with the dense support zone at 73.8-74 dollars. The price has already tested this level once yesterday. If it can hold this level again today, especially if it forms a bottom and then quickly rebounds, confirming a bounce-back, there will be a technical basis for further upward movement. Short-term resistance is concentrated around 78. Conversely, if the price effectively breaks below 74 dollars, it may test the previous low of 70.07.

The hourly chart shows the upper Bollinger Band has turned upward, indicating diminishing downward momentum. The short-cycle MACD is also brewing a bullish divergence, all suggesting limited downside space.

The trading strategy is to buy high and sell low, mainly focusing on long positions as an auxiliary to short positions:

**Long positions (main force)**
Enter lightly at 74.5-75 dollars, with a stop-loss at 73.7, targeting 76.5-77. If the price tests the bottom and then rebounds to close above 74.5, and pulls back to 74.2-74.5 for a second entry, the stop-loss remains unchanged, and the target is moved up to 77.5-78.

**Short positions (complementary)**
Try short at 77.5-78 dollars with a stop-loss at 78.3, aiming for a pullback to 75.5-76.

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ProtocolRebel

· 13h ago

Non-farm payrolls are the real catalyst; anything else is just talking in vain. Yesterday, 74 was tested again. If there hadn't been support below, it would have collapsed long ago. Regulations are really annoying. I'm optimistic about breaking 78, but don't get caught in a trap. When the dollar strengthens, silver immediately loses its shine. Is 74.5 a good entry point? I think we should wait a bit longer. Buying now feels a bit early. Silver is just being led around by the dollar; non-farm payroll data is the real game-changer. If it can't break 78, there's no need to fuss. Just stick to a conservative, sideways trading strategy. Wow, once again there's a brewing divergence at the bottom. Is this for real this time? Feels like it's happening every day.

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SellTheBounce

· 17h ago

It's the old trick of non-farm payroll rescue again... The support level was supposed to hold, but if it breaks, it just goes lower, I've seen it many times. The 74-dollar line sounds solid, but when it really matters, a big order can break through it. Don't be fooled by technicals. Sell on the rebound, this is the only rule to survive.

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LiquidatedNotStirred

· 17h ago

On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, silver prices are so volatile; 74 needs to hold, or else 70 might be broken... --- I find the bearish divergence signal quite agreeable; I just worry that data might explode and send the dollar soaring. --- It's mainly long positions with short positions as a supplement; I've memorized this routine. --- Whenever regulation tightens, they start offloading; can it really hold until the non-farm payrolls this time? --- Shorted at 78 and laughed; but the non-farm payrolls were weak, and prices shot straight to 80. --- With such strong demand for silver from new energy, why is it still being suppressed by the dollar?

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MainnetDelayedAgain

· 17h ago

According to the database, this silver drama has been going on for almost a week, with each time claiming that "the non-farm payroll report in the evening is the turning point"... I really look forward to the day when it isn't a turning point.

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0xInsomnia

· 17h ago

Non-farm data is the real trump card; the 74 level must hold. --- Silver really didn't have much momentum this round; once regulation pressure came, the enthusiasm faded. --- Waiting for evening data—either a breakout or a pullback, there's no third option. --- That's right, there are still bottom divergence signals; I'm also watching the 74.5 opportunity. --- Be cautious if it breaks 78; the resistance here is no joke. --- Why is it still consolidating? Is there a catalyst? --- A strong dollar makes silver worthless; the logic is sound, but no one dares to trade aggressively right now. --- The supply gap is interesting, but in the short term, sentiment still dominates.

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JioCoins

· 17h ago

Watching Closely 🔍️

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fomo_fighter

· 17h ago

Non-farm payroll data this time is probably another moment of risking it all; if it can't hold at $74, it's really over. --- Silver has been consolidating for quite a while, waiting for tonight's show. --- Even with divergence appearing, it still falls? I think the bulls should wake up. --- Demand for new energy supports the market; this logic is quite solid. However, a crackdown by regulators would make everything pointless. --- Entering long at 74.5 is a bit greedy; trying 75 might be a safer move. --- I see the 77.5 short position as uncertain; why is the upper band turning down so quickly, about to fall back? --- Another non-farm payroll report and expectations of rate cuts—how to trade these two together? Might as well just bet with anger. --- If the support band is so clearly defined, why would it break? Unless the dollar suddenly surges. --- Talking about buying high and selling low sounds good, but in practice, you're just caught in the middle. --- MSCI inclusion of digital assets? What's the connection between this hot topic and silver prices? It's a bit confusing.

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