#比特币价格预测与分析 I looked at the latest data from Polymarket, and the probability of Bitcoin dropping below 80,000 in December has jumped from 16% yesterday to 9%. This shift in sentiment is quite interesting. The probability has been halved in just one day, indicating that the market's optimism about the future trend is increasing.

The probability of falling below 75,000 is only 3%, which basically suggests that this level is now considered stable. Conversely, the expectation of breaking above 95,000 is rising, although the proportion isn't large, the direction is clear—funds are betting on an upward move.

This kind of emotional fluctuation is actually a process of re-pricing chips. Short-term predictions are inherently a game of probabilities. The rapid data changes instead show that market participants are continuously adjusting their expectations. But to be fair, Polymarket's predictions are essentially a collective guess by traders. They can serve as a reference, but shouldn't be taken as gospel.