#预测市场 Kalshi's recent research report is quite interesting. The prediction market's inflation forecast accuracy surprisingly outperforms Wall Street? An average error of 40% lower over 25 months of data—this is no joke.

The key discovery is what "collective intelligence" really means—traders gathering information through economic incentives, with a responsiveness higher than traditional economists. Especially during volatile market conditions, the prediction market's advantage can soar up to 67%.

To put it simply: predictions made by crowds of money are more reliable than experts because making mistakes really costs money. Kalshi has now launched a Research feature that provides internal data, aiming to establish influence in the prediction market. This approach is quite clever, after all, data is trust.

From an entry-level perspective, this also shows one thing—true market consensus is often more accurate than authoritative forecasts and is worth considering.