The market has never lacked those who dare to bet, what is truly scarce are the wise who live long enough.

Staring at the sea of green on the screen, I helplessly closed the trading app. This decline has only lasted a month, but the damage has been quite astonishing. If it truly evolves into a bear market lasting a year and a half like in history, the consequences are unthinkable.

The current technical situation has completely broken down. Daily, weekly, and even monthly charts all broke through important support levels, and the entire market is weak to the extreme. More alarmingly, the ratio of bulls to bears is severely unbalanced—indicating that a large number of retail investors are recklessly bottom-fishing.

Honestly, I’ve never believed in the saying "this time will be different." When most people see a golden opportunity to buy the dip, the market just keeps falling even more sharply. This is a common pattern in bear markets.

**How brutal are bear markets?**

Just look at the historical records. Bear markets usually last longer than expected. Some last only a few months, while others can extend for years. Take a classic decline as an example: the downward trend persisted for a considerable period, and those eager to pick up bargains ended up losing everything.

Bear markets generally unfold in three stages. The first is the divergence phase, where assets of different sizes perform unevenly. Then comes the resonance phase, where everything plunges together. The final stage is despair— even the most steadfast believers can’t hold on anymore and start cutting losses. The current market is very likely only in the second stage.

Those expecting immediate results from rescue policies may be disappointed. Policy support is never achieved overnight. Experienced traders who have gone through multiple crashes have always said: "The first day of market rescue is definitely not the bottom. The whole process involves several rounds of ups and downs, experiencing multiple reversals. Only when everyone is utterly hopeless will a big turnaround suddenly happen." Relying on policy signals to reverse the trend is basically unrealistic.

**What signals is the market sending now?**

The most striking are these contradictory signals. On one hand, technical indicators are in complete collapse; on the other, continuous capital inflows are trying to bottom-fish. This conflicting situation often indicates that a deeper correction is still ahead.

When the true bottom appears, it won’t be when technical indicators look good, but rather when the entire market loses confidence and no one cares anymore. That sense of silence is more telling than any decline.