While everyone is still nervously watching this month's Federal Reserve meeting, industry insiders have already set their sights on 2026—a forecast framework for the pace of rate cuts is circulating, precise to the month and magnitude.

According to Barclays' latest policy expectations, there are two key time windows in 2026: the first cut of 25 basis points in March, followed by another 25 basis points cut in June. This is not just a numbers game; it reflects judgments about the entire economic cycle.

Why specifically 2026? The core logic is quite straightforward. The current stance of the Federal Reserve is to be cautious and not rush, requiring more time to observe economic trends. This means that from 2024 to 2025, the high-interest-rate environment will continue, while inflation gradually cools down in the process, slowly approaching the target level. By early 2026, if economic indicators return to a balanced state, the door to rate cuts will truly open.

The question is: why focus on something two years ahead now? Historical experience tells us that investors who can anticipate policy shifts early tend to position themselves first, ultimately profiting from the wave of asset re-pricing. When everyone is reacting to changes, smart money has already laid out its moves.

Of course, this roadmap is not set in stone. If inflation rises again, economic data fluctuate, or international situations change, plans may be adjusted. But the "two-step rate cut" framework is already enough to guide long-term asset allocation.

From a market perspective, in the short term (before and after this month's meeting), the Federal Reserve will likely maintain a cautious stance, which could lead to continued market volatility. However, from a long-term view, once the downward trend in interest rates is confirmed, bond markets, growth stocks, and even the crypto asset sector could undergo a systematic revaluation.

In short, the chess game of rate cuts in 2026 should already be on the table for consideration today.