Gold Price Analysis: What to Expect from the Movement of the Yellow Metal | November 11, 2025

Gold Prices Continue to Rise as Critical Resistance Levels Near

The yellow metal is experiencing a sustained upward movement today, with prices reaching approximately (4,137 dollars per ounce), marking its best performance in three weeks. This rally is driven by a combination of economic and political factors supporting safe-haven demand. Recent US data showed weakness in the labor market and a noticeable decline in consumer sentiment, reinforcing expectations of an imminent shift in monetary policy.

Technically, analysts are watching the $4,200 level as a crucial barrier. If gold can break through this level decisively, it could open the way toward higher levels around $4,300. However, momentum indicators suggest the market is approaching overbought conditions, which may lead to short-term corrections before resuming the upward trend.

Expectations of Rate Cuts Support Positive Gold Outlook

The likelihood of a US interest rate cut in the upcoming meeting has increased following disappointing economic data. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 64% chance of a 25 basis point cut, while some policymakers are discussing a deeper cut of 50 basis points if inflation continues to decline and unemployment rises.

For gold, accommodative monetary policies create an ideal environment as they weaken the dollar and reduce real yields on bonds. This makes the yellow metal a more attractive option for investors seeking to preserve their wealth. With the possibility of a new easing cycle, gold is returning to its traditional role as a reliable safe haven, especially as prices have stabilized above $4,130.

Political Crisis Resolution Does Not Alter Weak Economic Path

After weeks of deadlock, the US Senate approved a funding agreement that ended the longest government shutdown in history. While this step is important for financial stability, its direct impact on gold is relatively limited.

The main reason is that the core issue is not the shutdown itself but the underlying economic weakness revealed afterward. Declining employment and falling consumer confidence point to a genuine economic slowdown, which favors gold as a safe haven. Additionally, resuming economic data releases reintroduces an element of surprise to the market, and any unexpected negative indicators could boost rate cut expectations and further support gold.

Weak Economic Indicators Deepen Gold Demand

Recent data paint a bleak picture of the US economy. The consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 points in November, the lowest in over three and a half years. Meanwhile, the official statistical agency was unable to publish October’s monthly employment data due to the government shutdown, increasing uncertainty.

Private sector data showed a modest increase of only 42,000 jobs, a figure that does not fully reflect the health of the labor market. This economic weakness prompts investors to reassess expectations, with a stronger likelihood of political action from the central bank. In this context, gold becomes a key protective asset against potential recession.

Long-Term Outlook: J.P. Morgan Raises Ambition Ceiling

Recent reports from major investment banks place gold among the top assets expected to perform exceptionally in 2026. Analysts anticipate prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce, driven by deep structural factors rather than short-term fluctuations.

Key drivers include a steady increase in central bank purchases, especially from emerging markets seeking to diversify reserves away from the dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions. As global easing continues, fixed-income assets lose their appeal, while gold emerges as a strategic long-term instrument.

Although current prices (around 4,130–4,140 dollars) seem distant from the $5,000 target, recent investor behavior reflects a fundamental shift toward holding gold as a core component of portfolios rather than just a short-term trading tool.

Technical Outlook: Uptrend with Limited Correction Potential

On the chart, gold maintains a moderate upward trajectory after a strong rebound from the critical support zone at $3,928. Today, trading is around $4,133, with a clear bias toward testing nearby resistance at $4,145, extending to $4,180.

From a medium-term perspective, gold appears within a solid uptrend supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows since the start of Q4. The new important support level is at $4,046, and as long as gold remains above it, the trend remains positive.

Regarding momentum indicators, the RSI### reads 75, indicating short-term overbought conditions. This could suggest a slight correction before resuming the rally, especially in the absence of strong new catalysts. However, positive divergence between price and indicator supports the continuation of bullish momentum.

Trading volume shows gradual improvement, confirming new capital inflows into the market. Key levels to watch are: support at $4,046 and $3,928, and resistance at $4,145–$4,180 and $4,381.

Critical support levels:

• $4,046: Recent strong support; a break would change the outlook
• $3,928: Strategic pivotal support
• $3,470: Long-term support

( Important resistance levels:

• $4,145: Immediate resistance
• $4,381: Significant previous high
• $4,500: Future technical target

Short-Term Outlook: Possible Scenarios

Gold is expected to continue its upward movement in the coming sessions, approaching the $4,145–$4,200 range. This zone represents a critical resistance that could temporarily slow the rally.

In a positive scenario, a clear breakout above $4,200 could push prices toward $4,300 in the near term, supported by rate cut expectations and weak economic data.

In a less likely )currently scenario, selling pressures might push prices back toward $4,046 and then $3,928 if positive economic surprises occur. However, the overall trend remains bullish as long as the main support levels hold.

Performance of Other Precious Metals: General Rise with Variations

Other precious metals also gained, but to varying degrees. Silver rose to around $50.9 per ounce, benefiting from increased safe-haven demand, though it remains sensitive to industrial demand.

Platinum traded around $1,584, supported by a recovery in industrial demand, especially in the automotive sector. Palladium continued its ascent toward $1,435, benefiting from improved global supply chains.

Overall, metals benefit from economic uncertainty and dollar weakness, but gold remains the primary star amid growing bets on policy changes and increased investor interest as a strategic asset.