Bitcoin December Trend Prediction: The market believes the probability of falling below 80,000 is only 16%, and breaking above 100,000 is similarly rare.

2025-12-24 03:14:08

On December 24, there are considerable differences in the prediction market regarding the recent trend of Bitcoin. Data shows that the market participants who believe Bitcoin will fall below $80,000 in December are in the minority, with a probability of about 16%. If we look at a more pessimistic scenario - falling below $75,000, this probability is only about 5%. However, on the other side, the voices expecting a rise above $100,000 are also similar, with a probability of about 5%. Overall, the market's expectations for Bitcoin are still relatively cautious, and most people seem to believe that there will not be extreme fluctuations in the short term.

BTC-0.16%

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MerkleDreamer

· 10h ago

This market cycle is just repeatedly tormenting us within the 80,000 to 100,000 range, really pointless. --- Falling from 16% to 80,000? Feels like the probability is overestimated. --- It's always cautious expectations, tired of this phrase, the market turns around just as predicted. --- A 5% chance to reach 100,000? Who's really footing the bill? --- If the market is so aligned, it's better to look at on-chain data for real insights. --- Sounds good, but actually no one dares to place bets. --- Wait, these percentages add up to less than 50%, what about the rest? --- Non-extreme market conditions are the most torturous; I prefer wild surges and crashes. --- Market predictors are becoming more cautious; last year someone dared to call 200,000. --- Short-term non-extremes, long-term madness, just like in previous years.

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GasOptimizer

· 17h ago

16% falls below 80,000, 5% breaks above 100,000... this data distribution is quite interesting, where are all those large heads in the middle? --- It's another probability game of the prediction market, feels like just betting on market sentiment --- 5% breaking above 100,000? This arbitrage space needs to be calculated carefully, can the leverage rate hold up? --- Market "cautious"? I see it as still on the sidelines, once it breaks the level, the movement will be significant --- 16% vs 5% probability setting, why does it feel like the prediction market is also playing with capital efficiency? --- So the core consensus is to just lie flat in the range, in this kind of market, we should pay attention to on-chain evidence and large investors' movements --- What's the use of looking at prediction probabilities, we still need to watch the exchange's real trading volume resistance level

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Rugman_Walking

· 17h ago

16% fall below 80,000? That means it's highly likely to continue oscillating, boring.

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SchroedingerAirdrop

· 17h ago

Hey, wait a minute, the probability of falling to 80,000 is 16%, but rising to 100,000 is only 5%? This logic seems a bit off. --- It's again this kind of ambiguous prediction; anyway, there are always people making money regardless of the movement. --- Wait, does the market really see it this way? It doesn't feel that optimistic. --- 16% chance of dropping below 80,000? I feel like the risk is much greater than that. Where did this data come from? --- Interestingly, the extreme probabilities for both falling and rising are the same, indicating that everyone is betting on the middle range. --- To say caution means no one dares to place bets, so we just continue to oscillate. --- I really don't understand why the probabilities for extreme bearish and bullish situations are similar. Is this what they call market Consensus? --- I just want to know if this 16% is reliable; anyway, I don't trust this prediction market.

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SnapshotBot

· 17h ago

Is a 16% fall below 80,000? Sounds like the market is still quite optimistic, but I feel this data might be lagging behind. Wait, a 5% chance of going up to 100,000 seems too low, why do I feel like it's being held hostage by dumping expectations? To be honest, this wave of market fluctuations is just torturing people between 80,000 and 100,000 repeatedly, no one can make big money. Most people are just watching, and that's the scariest part. Once the Consensus breaks, it could turn into chaos in minutes. Every day predictions go back and forth, it’s better to just pick a direction and stick with it; anyway, hindsight is always 20/20.

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ColdWalletGuardian

· 17h ago

Did 16% fall below 80,000? That means the market is actually quite optimistic, right? There are really not many people who are truly pessimistic.

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ChainWallflower