Recently, an interesting viewpoint has been circulating in the industry. A well-known encryption investor mentioned in a media interview that if Bitcoin does not experience that kind of crazy rise by the end of the year, it might actually be a good thing - it could very well be the key factor in preventing a significant fall in the first quarter of next year.

Why do I say that? The core logic is actually quite straightforward. The current volatility of Bitcoin has been significantly compressed. What does this mean? It means that the probability of exaggerated pullbacks of 70% or 80% is very low. In other words, although the rise is not stimulating enough, the risk of falling has also been greatly weakened.

The analyst also emphasized a piece of data: although Bitcoin has not surged to the $250,000 that some aggressive investors dream of, looking at the longer term — a 100% rise in two years and nearly 300% in three years — this performance is quite impressive in the overall financial market. Currently, the trading price of Bitcoin is around $87,436, which, compared to the beginning of the year, has dropped by 7.39%, but considering the overall trend, this is just a normal market adjustment.

The reduction in volatility is indeed disappointing for some who seek thrilling returns, but from another perspective, it provides holders with more downside protection. The probability of a major crash is indeed decreasing.

However, there are also other voices predicting longer-term trends. Some analysts predict that Bitcoin may fall back to around $60,000 in the third quarter of 2026, while the macro research director of a fund company believes that Bitcoin may bottom out at $65,000 in 2026. Although these predictions sound like a significant drop, they are still within a comprehensible range compared to current prices and historical fluctuations.