Dear traders, there is a major data release tonight at 21:30 — the November Non-Farm Payrolls and the revised October employment data. The issue is, the authenticity of this data has already been significantly compromised.

Rather than saying this is a guessing game, it’s more like a precise market stress test. Will the "downside risks" repeatedly emphasized by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell be confirmed in this data? The key point is that it directly influences the direction of global liquidity expectations. The crypto market will be the first to feel the impact.

**Why might this data be "watered down"?**

The aftermath of the government shutdown cannot be underestimated. Anomalies in the statistical samples have already raised alarms among top economists: the November unemployment rate might be artificially inflated. The 4.5% figure or even higher may not reflect the true employment situation. What the market is trading is actually a discounted signal.

There’s also a more painful truth — Powell himself revealed that since April, official employment data may have been overstated by about 60,000 jobs each month. If corrected for this, US employment growth would have been close to zero or even shrinking. Tonight’s data is just another faint reflection of this harsh reality.

**The labor market is actually frozen.**

Companies are neither hiring en masse nor laying off significantly; the entire market is in a fragile freeze. If this situation persists, how will liquidity expectations adjust? The direction of crypto asset allocation will also fluctuate accordingly.