Impact of BTC Trend Data: August Non-farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate Outlook

Data release time: September 5, 2025, 20:30
Three expected scenarios:
1. Better than expected (bullish for USD, bearish for gold, US stocks, and BTC)
Non-farm payrolls added ≥ 100,000
Unemployment Rate ≤ 4.1%
The labor market remains strong, and the Federal Reserve may maintain high interest rates, which could lead to a significant rise in the dollar index, putting short-term pressure on gold and risk assets.

2. Meets expectations (market fluctuations, direction to be determined)
Non-farm payrolls increased by about 75,000
The unemployment rate is approximately 4.3%
Market volatility is limited, and funds will wait for subsequent CPI, PPI, and other inflation data to further confirm the trend.

3. Worse than expected (bearish for the dollar, bullish for gold, US stocks, and BTC)
Non-farm payroll growth ≤ 50,000
Unemployment rate ≥ 4.4%
Economic slowdown signs are evident, and the market may anticipate that the Federal Reserve will pivot to a dovish stance ahead of schedule, leading to a potential short-term rebound in risk assets such as gold, the Nasdaq, and BTC. Additionally, the crypto market may enter a new upward trend earlier.
Data Background and Market Impact

In August, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figure was revised to 73,000, with an expectation of 75,000; the unemployment rate in August was previously 4.20%, with an expectation of 4.30%. Non-farm employment data is one of the core indicators measuring the health of the US economy and typically has a direct impact on the US dollar, gold, US Treasury yields, as well as global stock markets and cryptocurrency trends.

If the data significantly exceeds expectations, it implies that corporate demand remains strong, the US economy is resilient, and the Federal Reserve may maintain its tightening policy, thereby supporting the dollar and suppressing the performance of gold, the stock market, and BTC.
If the data is roughly in line with expectations, market sentiment will become cautious, waiting for further economic data guidance.
If the data is significantly weak, the market will increase its bets on future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on the dollar and causing it to decline, while risk assets such as gold, crude oil, US stocks, and $BTC may benefit.

The non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data will be released on the evening of September 5, and is expected to serve as a barometer for the global capital markets. We should pay close attention to the gap between the "actual published value" and the "market expectations".#非农就业数据来袭